The NBA season just began and a few are predicting Jimmer Fredette will be the NBA's Rookie of the Year.
That may or may not occur, but Sacramento coach Paul Westphal is already saying he wants Fredette to have his hands on the ball a lot.
As for the ROY award, what are his chances?
Pretty good if history is any precedent. Naismith Player of the Year awards don't always equate to NBA Rookie of the Year, but consider this: Blake Griffin, the 2009 Naismith winner, was last year's ROY. In 2007, Kevin Durrant won the Naismith and the next year won ROY. Same with Elton Brand in 1999, Tim Duncan in '97 and Larry Johnson in 1991.
And almost always the Naismith winner turns out to a good or great NBA player. To wit: Shane Battier, Kenyon Martin, Andrew Bogut, David Robinson, Patrick Ewing, Michael Jordan and Larry Bird.
There are a some that didn't become huge stars (J.J .Redick, Tyler Hansbrough, etc.), but what history has shown is that players like Fredette almost always stick in the NBA.
ROY award or not.
Do I think he'll win Rookie of the Year?
I'd be more inclined to go with Kyrie Irving, Kemba Walker or maybe even Ricky Rubio.
But like almost all Naismith winners, Fredette will go on to a long and prosperous career.