Only weeks ago NFL players were grumbling about the addition of a 17th game to the regular-season schedule and perfectly healthy NBA players were taking nights off because there were so many games.
And now there are none.
Talk about load management. Do you think Kawhi Leonard’s OK with this? Does he need a night off from his nights off?
From Wimbledon to the L.A. Coliseum, all is quiet on the western and eastern fronts of the COVID-19 war. There’s been nothing like it. Not even World War II shut down so many games.
The expectation is that the once-thriving business of sports will resume later this year — pro athletes will once again squabble over the last cent of their multimillion-dollar contracts that guarantee they never have to work again in their lives, and owners will suck dry every revenue stream and fans will arrive in crowds at the gate and in front of the TV and the NCAA will continue to exploit amateur athletes to make billions.
Or maybe not.
What if this was a reset for sports as we know them?
It’s difficult to imagine a return to normal any time soon in any aspect of life — from the way we greet people (can we be done with the handshake and half-hug combo?) to the way we eat at restaurants (takeout, please) to the way we gather for cultural and sporting events and church meetings (drive-thru church?) to the way we use mass transportation (how do you feel about flying coach now?).
If or when scientists announce that it is safe to resume our old ways, how many will do so? How many are really going to want to sit elbow to elbow with thousands of fans in a college football stadium, or, worse, in a packed college basketball or NBA arena?
Will fans be thinking about touchdowns, or viruses? Will hazmat suits become de rigueur? Pass the hand sanitizer and the n95 mask, please.
This might sound far-fetched, but so did the changes we underwent in the aftermath of 9/11 and now they are part of the lifestyle and no one gives them a second thought. Remember the days when we could greet airport arrivals at the gate, and didn’t have to undress before entering the concourse? Remember when you could carry a bottle of water onto the plane that was more than 3.4 ounces?
Those days are as quaint as Mayberry. Maybe someday you’ll tell the grandkids about the time when you watched ball games in person, not strictly on TV, and that you can still remember the smell of hot dogs and popcorn in the air. Ah, those were the days.
Beyond the issue of viruses, there is another matter that will give people pause before they return to the stands. Money. When the dust settles after The Time of Social Distancing, how many will have the disposable income to spend on tickets to sports events (or movies or concerts)?
The pandemic could be a game changer in the sports world.
Only a relatively small percentage of revenues from professional sports franchises come from gate receipts, but it’s enough that it could disrupt the business model if fans don’t return to the gate.
Only a relatively small percentage of revenues from professional sports franchises come from gate receipts, but it’s enough that it could disrupt the business model if fans don’t return to the gate.
The NBA lost 259 games this season, plus more than 80 playoff games. NBC estimated that cost the league nearly $500 million in revenue. The league makes about half of its $9 billion in revenue from TV contracts, and it failed to deliver about 340 of those games this spring.
The NCAA lost about $1.1 billion by canceling March Madness, which cost schools about $375 million. And things got more expensive this week when the NCAA decided to grant an extra year of eligibility to all spring athletes because their seasons were canceled by the pandemic.
There is some question about whether the NFL and NCAA will be able to start their football seasons as usual. Maybe they will be delayed, which will mean more lost revenue.
Already the NBA has asked its players to take a 50 percent pay cut. Iowa State announced that it will reduce pay and suspend bonuses for coaches and administrators. Athletic director Jamie Pollard says the school also plans to “provide … ticket holders and donors some relief in regards to ticket prices and donations.”
Pollard continued, “Although we could have passed on implementing these difficult decisions today and simply hoped for things to improve, we felt it was wise to act now.”
Expect many more schools and professional franchises to follow Iowa State’s lead.
No one knows what’s ahead. These sports businesses will pick themselves up after being knocked down, but it’s difficult to predict how they’ll be embraced (from a distance of course) by fans and how quickly things truly return to normal. The longer this pandemic shutdown goes on, the more difficult the return to normal, of course.
Whether it’s truly warranted at the time or not, fans might well wonder if the coronavirus will flare up again if they gather in stadiums. It only takes one carrier to set off a wildfire of contagion. People will still be washing their hands like brain surgeons and looking sideways at their neighbors until a vaccine is found.
No matter how this plays out, it’s a different ballgame.