For a time next Tuesday night, while most of the country is invested in who will win the presidential election — Democrat candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris or Republican candidate Donald Trump — college football fans will tune in eagerly to ESPN.
A week from today, at 5 p.m. MT, the first College Football Playoff rankings for the 2024 season will be released.
One of six rankings slated to be released by the CFP committee this fall, the initial offering will provide a glimpse into what the committee is thinking — what it values and who it favors — in regards to the first-ever 12-team playoff at the FBS level.
Does placement in the first CFP poll matter?
The CFP rankings have been around for a little while. Eleven years in fact.
And in the four team format, early placement in playoff spots was fairly hit-and-miss when it came to which teams ended up playing in the playoff.
In 2014, the first year the rankings were released, the top four in the initial CFP rankings were: 1. Mississippi State; 2. Florida State; 3. Auburn; 4. Ole Miss. Only one of those teams ended up in the playoff. The final four teams in 2014 were: 1. Alabama; 2. Oregon; 3. Florida State; 4. Ohio State.
Go through the CFP rankings over the last decade and what mostly holds true is that the initial rankings regularly have failed to predict which teams ultimately ended up in the playoff.
In 2015, two of the committee’s initial top four made the final top four. The same thing happened in 2016. And 2017 and 2019.
In 2021, 2022 and 2023, only one team in the initial top four of the rankings made it through to the playoff.
Of course, narrowing things down to four teams is a lot different than picking out 12 teams for the playoff. Plus, the five highest ranked conference champions are guaranteed berths in the playoff in the 12-team format. There were no guaranteed spots in the four team format.
All of which makes the committee’s first rankings in the 12-team format so interesting. The larger format, in theory, will excuse losses by teams much more than the four-team format did.
Do the committee’s top teams in the first poll have a greater likelihood of making the playoff then? We’ll see, come Dec. 8.
Where might undefeated BYU land?
The committee officially ranks teams using the following criteria:
- Conference championships won.
- Strength of schedule.
- Head-to-head results.
- Comparison of results against common opponents.
Wins and losses matter, sure. As does record against ranked opponents (in that instance, teams ranked in the CFP poll, whatever the latest version is).
But ultimately the CFP committee attempts to determine the best teams, which hasn’t always equated to the teams that had the best season, on paper at least.
So where might the Cougars’ land in the initial poll?
The CFP committee doesn’t consider either the AP or Coaches Poll at all, which means there is a chance BYU comes in ranked higher in the CFP poll than where it currently stands.
CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm projects that BYU will come in at No. 6 overall in the first rankings, behind Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State and Miami.
Writes Palm: “I have not found a preseason prediction that had the Cougars in the top 10 of the Big 12, let alone the nation, but here they are. Wins over Kansas State and at SMU have them in the top 10. BYU has only one game left against a team that is currently above .500, so their margin for error is not great.”
The CFP bracket versus the rankings
Wherever BYU lands in the initial rankings, what may end up being more important is that the Cougars win the Big 12 Conference championship.
As previously mentioned, the five highest ranked conference champions get guaranteed berths in the 12-team format. Currently — based on the AP Poll — that would mean that Oregon (Big Ten) would be the No. 1 overall seed, Miami (ACC) the No. 2 seed, Texas (SEC) the No. 3 seed and BYU (Big 12) the No. 4 seed.
In order to keep that top 4 seed, the Cougars will need to win the Big 12 and stay ahead of the top-ranked Group of Five conference champion in the rankings. As things currently stand, that would be Boise State, which is ranked No. 15 in the AP poll.
A top four seed means a bye the first round of the playoffs, which would place BYU automatically in the quarterfinals, in a traditionally prestigious bowl too (Think Fiesta Bowl or Cotton Bowl. Something along those lines).
As explained by the CFP, “the selection committee will assign the four highest-ranked conference champions to Playoff Quarterfinals hosted by bowls. This will be done in consideration of historic bowl relationships, then in consideration of rankings. For example, if the Sugar Bowl hosts a Playoff Quarterfinal and the SEC champion is ranked No. 1 and the Big 12 champion is ranked No. 3, the SEC champion would be assigned to the Sugar Bowl and the Big 12 champion would be assigned elsewhere.”
The higher BYU is ranked the better for the Cougars, though. Even if they win out, including the Big 12 championship. A higher initial ranking gives BYU a greater margin for error going forward this season. And in the playoff. (The No. 1 seed will face off against the winner of the No. 8/9 matchup, the No. 4 seed against the winner of the No. 5/12 bout, , the No. 2 seed against the No. 7/10 winner and the No. 3 seed vs. the No. 6/11 winner.
And then there is just making it into the field. Only 12 teams out of 133 at the FBS level will make the playoff. It is a leap from the four-team format for sure. Much more participation. But you can be certain plenty of teams will be unhappy come early Dec. when they find out that they have been left out and other teams have gotten in.
And it all start next Tuesday night on ESPN.