It’s been a less than encouraging start to Big 12 play for BYU.
After an opening win over Arizona State, the Cougars have been manhandled by Houston and taken down at home by Texas Tech.
Kevin Young’s squad is 1-2 against conference foes thus far, with the latest Bracketology projections leaving them out of the tournament field.
While BYU’s subpar shooting and inconsistent defense are troubling, all hope is not lost — at least according to the advanced metrics.
ESPN Analytics and KenPom each use a number of formulas to project specific outcomes for every college basketball game. I looked into the algorithm’s projections for each remaining BYU contest this season to determine how the Cougars’ final record might shake out.
Each game includes the present percentage chance ESPN Analytics and KenPom give BYU to win that day, with the cumulative record being tallied together based on what the algorithm decided.
Injuries, newer game results and a number of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now, we’ll stick to what they say today.
While you should never fully put your faith into such data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves to be analytics believers should prepare to see some winning again soon.
ESPN Analytics’ projections
BYU’s current record: 10-4 (1-2 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- @ TCU — 50.9% chance to win
- Vs. Oklahoma State — 88.4%
- @ Utah — 53.1%
- @Colorado — 66.4%
- Vs. Cincinnati — 56.8%
- Vs. Baylor — 45.8%
- @ UCF — 62.8%
- Vs. Arizona — 38.3%
- @ Cincinnati — 31.2%
- @ West Virginia — 43.5%
- Vs. Kansas State — 84.1%
- Vs. Kansas — 38.2%
- @ Arizona — 17.6%
- @ Arizona State — 53.6%
- Vs. West Virginia — 69.1%
- @ Iowa State — 16.8%
- Vs. Utah — 76.7%
ESPN Analytics-based projected final record: 20-11 (11-9 in Big 12 play)
KenPom’s projections
BYU’s current record: 10-4 (1-2 in Big 12 play)
Remaining schedule
- @ TCU — 49% chance to win
- Vs. Oklahoma State — 85%
- @ Utah — 54%
- @Colorado — 53%
- Vs. Cincinnati — 59%
- Vs. Baylor — 48%
- @ UCF — 54%
- Vs. Arizona — 43%
- @ Cincinnati — 32%
- @ West Virginia — 34%
- Vs. Kansas State — 82%
- Vs. Kansas — 39%
- @ Arizona — 20%
- @ Arizona State — 43%
- Vs. West Virginia — 65%
- @ Iowa State — 10%
- Vs. Utah — 80%
KenPom-based projected final record: 18-13 (9-11 in Big 12 play)
