- 38 people, including two pilots and a flight attendant, were killed in the crash, but there were 29 survivors to Christmas Day incident.
- Early indications suggest that the plane could have been brought down by Russian air defense systems. Fog, birds and the rerouting of the flight due to drones and poor visibility are all alternative explanations offered for the crash.
- The Azerbaijan's president declared a day of mourning following the crash and Russian president shared his condolences.
On Christmas Day, a plane traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, crashed in Kazakhstan, killing over half of its passengers. Theories abound regarding why the plane made an emergency landing near the Kazakhstani city of Aktau.
White House national security communications adviser John Kirby told reporters Friday there are “some early indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this jet was brought down by Russian air defense systems,” according to The New York Times.
“That said, there’s an ongoing investigation right now,” he said. “Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are conducting this jointly. We have offered our assistance to that investigation.” Russia is also doing its own investigation.
In a video posted on X, onlookers record as the plane crashes into the ground.
The Wednesday plane crash killed 38, including two pilots and a flight attendant, and left 29 injured survivors.
Ilham Aliyev, president of Azerbaijan, declared Dec. 26 a day of mourning for his country’s people. He spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who also shared his condolences. Later, in a CIS meeting, Putin said, “Russia’s Emergency Ministry sent a plane with equipment and medical workers to Kazakhstan to assist with the aftermath of the crash,” per The Associated Press.
Investigators continue to find cause of crash
The plane crashed for reasons that are still uncertain; however, the ongoing war with Ukraine and Russia has many speculating whether there’s a connection to the crash.
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, told CBS News the punctured holes found in the tail wing of the plane look like “damage compatible with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missiles, such as the Pantsyr-S1 air defense system,” a Russian air defense system used to take down Ukrainian drones.
A video posted on Telegram shows the damage to the back of the plane.
Rasim Musabayov, a member of the National Assembly of Azerbaijan, also said on Friday that all fingers point to Russia and that an explanation is in order as to why the plan was not allowed to land at any other airports around Grozny, per The New York Times.
“If someone thinks that we are allies with Russia and therefore we would close our eyes on everything, then they are mistaken,” he said. “There aren’t that many countries that are on good terms with Russia now,” he added. “If Moscow doesn’t make the right steps in this situation the list might get shorter.”
But Russia isn’t the only possible culprit — birds and fog are also suspected.
News from Russia on Friday said the plane was rerouted from its planned destination due to the presence of drones but also because of fog in the area, CNN reported. Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency also previously said the plane crashed after colliding with birds.
“Ukrainian combat drones were carrying out terrorist attacks on civilian infrastructure in the cities of Grozny and Vladikavkaz,” Dmitry Yadrov, head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, said.
According to Yadrov, the pilot attempted to land in Grozny twice but was unable to. He said the pilot was offered other airports to land in but “‘decided to proceed to the Aktau airport’ across the Caspian Sea in Kazakhstan. There was also dense fog in the area of the Grozny airport, he said,” CNN added.
Grozny, the capital city of Chechnya, Russia, has been attacked by Ukrainian drones before. Some Russian media outlets reported attacks on Chechnya that day, but no attack has been confirmed.
Flight radar information, per Flightradar24, also shows that the pilot seemed to have experienced a failure in the control systems, as “the aircraft was unable to maintain consistent altitude and speed for at least 75 minutes” of the flight.
Looking at the plane’s route, “You see an airplane flying wild, wild maneuvers with strong fluctuations in the course and in the flight altitude,” Heinrich Grossbongardt, an aviation industry expert in Hamburg, Germany, told The New York Times.
Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman, said Russia cannot offer theories until the investigation results are released.