Following through on its promise of aggressive action aiming to staunch record-high U.S. inflation, the Federal Reserve bumped its benchmark lending rate .5% on Wednesday, the biggest incremental jump in 22 years.
U.S. inflation hit a 12-month rate of 8.5% in March, according to the most recent report by the U.S. Department of Labor.
While the 8.5% inflation rate is the U.S. overall average, Utah and other Mountain West states that include Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico and Wyoming saw annual inflation increase at a nation-leading 10.4% in March.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate hike, which is expected to be followed by additional .5% upward adjustments in the coming months, has a “good chance” of cooling down inflation-driven consumer price increases now running at 40-year peaks.
“We need to do everything we can to restore stable prices as quickly and effectively as we can,” Powell said in a Wednesday press conference, per CNBC. “We think we have a good chance to do it without a significant increase in unemployment or a really sharp slowdown.”
But, Powell also acknowledged the Fed’s monetary toolkit is imprecise at best and the hoped-for outcome of stemming inflation is by no means guaranteed.
“We don’t have precision surgical tools. We have essentially interest rates, the balance sheet and forward guidance and they’re ... famously blunt tools,” Powell said at the press conference.
“No one thinks this will be easy. No one thinks it’s straightforward. But there’s certainly a plausible path to this,” he added.
Here’s how the rate hike could impact the average U.S. consumer:
I’m considering buying a house. Will mortgage rates keep going up?
Rates on home loans have soared in the past few months, mostly in anticipation of the Fed’s moves, and will probably keep rising. On Wednesday, Freddie Mac reported the average interest on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 5.27%, the highest in over a decade.
“Mortgage rates resumed their climb this week as the 30-year fixed reached its highest point since 2009,” Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, said in a press release. “While housing affordability and inflationary pressures pose challenges for potential buyers, house price growth will continue but is expected to decelerate in the coming months.”
Mortgage rates don’t necessarily move up in tandem with the Fed’s rate increases. Sometimes, they even move in the opposite direction. Long-term mortgages tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which, in turn, is influenced by a variety of factors. These include investors’ expectations for future inflation and global demand for U.S. Treasurys.
For now, though, faster inflation and strong U.S. economic growth are sending the 10-year Treasury rate up sharply. As a consequence, mortgage rates have jumped over 2 full percentage points just since the year began.
How will that affect the housing market?
If you’re looking to buy a home and are frustrated by the lack of available houses, which has triggered bidding wars and eye-watering prices, that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.
Economists say that higher mortgage rates will discourage some would-be purchasers. And average home prices, which have been soaring at about a 20% annual rate, could at least rise at a slower pace.
The surge in mortgage rates “will temper the pace of home price appreciation as more would-be homebuyers are priced out,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate.
Still, the number of available homes remains historically low, a trend that will likely frustrate buyers and keep prices high.
What about car loans?
Fed rate hikes can make auto loans more expensive. But other factors also affect those rates, including competition among carmakers that can sometimes lower borrowing costs.
Rates for buyers with lower credit ratings are most likely to rise as a result of the Fed’s hikes, said Alex Yurchenko, chief data officer for Black Book, which monitors U.S. vehicle prices. Because used vehicle prices, on average, are rising, monthly payments will rise too.
For now, new-vehicle loans average about 4.5%. Used-vehicle rates are about 5%.
What about other rates?
For users of credit cards, home equity lines of credit and other variable-interest debt, rates would rise by roughly the same amount as the Fed hike, usually within one or two billing cycles. That’s because those rates are based in part on banks’ prime rate, which moves in tandem with the Fed.
Those who don’t qualify for low-rate credit cards might be stuck paying higher interest on their balances. The rates on their cards would rise as the prime rate does.
Should the Fed decide to raise rates by 2 percentage points or more over the next two years — a distinct possibility — that would significantly enlarge interest payments.
Will I be able to earn more on my savings?
Probably, though not likely by very much. And it depends on where your savings, if you have any, are parked.
Savings, certificates of deposit and money market accounts don’t typically track the Fed’s changes. Instead, banks tend to capitalize on a higher-rate environment to try to increase their profits. They do so by imposing higher rates on borrowers, without necessarily offering any juicier rates to savers.
Contributing: Associated Press