Two-thirds of all Utahns think an earthquake the size that struck San Francisco will hit Utah in the next 10 years, the latest Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.
That's a pretty dim view, considering that experts say such a quake, which registered 7.0 on the Richter Scale, would cause 40 percent greater damage along the Wasatch Front than it did in San Francisco.Following the Bay area quake that killed more than 50 people and destroyed more than $2 billion in property, pollster Dan Jones & Associates asked several questions about that earthquake and Utahns' readiness for such a disaster.
Most said they expect such a quake and believe they are relatively prepared.
For example, 71 percent said they have emergency preparations to last their family at least 72 hours in the event of such a disaster, Jones found. Twenty-eight percent said they weren't so prepared.
Sixty-six percent said they expect a quake the size of the San Francisco tremor to strike the Wasatch Front in the next 10 years. Twenty-seven percent said they don't think that will happen, 7 percent didn't know.
Those 66 percent of Utahns who expect the big quake within 10 years are much more pessimistic than the experts, who say Wasatch Front will likely have a serious quake in the next 50 years.
Finally, Jones asked if the federal gasoline tax should be increased to help pay for damage - especially damage to roads and bridges - caused by the San Francisco quake.
Most Utahns, 58 percent, are against such a tax increase, 35 percent favor it and 7 percent didn't know. The California Legislature has already imposed an emergency sales tax increase that will raise $800 million for quake damage.
The fact that so many Utahns expect a large earthquake along the Wasatch Fault and so many believe they have 72-hour emergency stores ready is a good thing.
A 1976 study by the U.S. Geological Survey shows that a worst-case earthquake on the central Wasatch Fault would kill 2,300 people - assuming that no dams broke, which would kill thousands more - injure 9,000 and leave 30,000 homeless.
A 7.0 quake would cause more deaths and destruction in Utah than it did in San Francisco because of the soil makeup of the Salt Lake Valley and the relatively liberal building codes here.
San Franciscans have been preparing for the "big one" for years, and all recent structures have to meet strict earthquake codes. The city has grown a great deal since World War II, and much of the older housing and buildings have been restored or replaced.
Salt Lake City has a relatively large percentage of older buildings, and new construction hasn't had to meet the same standards, Utah experts say.
The Utah Advisory Council for Intergovernmental Relations recommends that the state spend $2.7 million to conduct a comprehensive study of where and how much the ground will shake in a Wasatch Front earthquake.
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Deseret News/KSL Poll
How likely do you feel it is that Utah will experience an earthquake the size of the one in San Francisco in the next 10 years?
Very likely.....26%
Somewhat likely.....40%
Somewhat unlikely.....16%
Very unlikely.....11%
Don't know.....7%
Do you have emergency preparations to last your family at least three days in the event of an earthquake?
Yes.....71%
No.....28%
Don't know.....0%
Do you favor or oppose Congress increasing the gasoline tax to help pay for damages from the San Francisco earthquake?
Strongly favor.....10%
Somewhat favor.....25%
Somewhat oppose.....19%
Strongly oppose.....39%
Don't know.....7%
Sample size: 604; margin of error plus or minus 4%