In northern Utah we tend to think of a White Christmas as one of those inalienable rights, like the pursuit of happiness and pizza delivery in 30 minutes or less.
But if you look at the cold, hard facts (facts as cold and hard as pavement not blanketed with snow) you'll discover that in the Salt Lake Valley, more likely than not, the Christmases tend to be brown.It does depend on your definition of White Christmas, though. If you're willing to call a "trace" of snow a White Christmas - certainly a liberal definition of the term, since a trace of snow produces only pitiful patches or flakes that melt on contact - the chances improve considerably. But even then, only six out of every 10 Salt Lake Christmases have, historically, had any snow at all.
Records compiled by Alex Smith, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service's Salt Lake office, show that:
-If you want a Courier and Ives White Christmas - the kind where the snow glistens on rooftops and falls delicately through the air, the chances are only 20 percent.
-If you'll be content with no snow falling but at least an inch on the ground, the chances jump up to 39 percent. Smith's numbers don't reveal, however, whether that inch or more of snow was truly white or, after weeks of lingering, had turned the color of bad teeth.
-If you're willing to settle for a trace of snow - something that at least distinguishes Christmas in Salt Lake from Christmas in southern California - the odds leap up to 61 percent. Still no guarantee though.
"As of late, say since weather records were kept at the airport, Santa probably would have been better off equipping his sleigh with wheels," notes William J. Alder, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's Salt Lake office.
Of course last year Santa needed snow tires and chains. Christmas Day, 1988, produced the biggest Christmas Day snowstorm in Salt Lake history. The National Weather Service's statistics, which count only airport snow depth as truly "official," recorded 5 inches. But in places like Sandy and Holladay the snowfall measured 14 to 17 inches - and that was just the new stuff.
Smith's calculations also include the following weather trivia:
-The most recent brown Christmas was in 1986, although the inversion did produce one-tenth of an inch of some sort of crystals. Other totally brown Christmases occurred in 1980 and during six of the 10 Christmases in the 1970s - 1978, 1977, 1976, 1974, 1972 and 1971.
-The years with the biggest Christmas Day snowfalls were, in addition to last year, 1983 (3.9 inches new, 13 inches total); 1943 (5.9 inches new); and 1959 (3.3 inches new).
-The average maximum temperature for Dec. 25 is 37 degrees. The hottest Christmas on record was in 1955, when the valley was a balmy 59 degrees. The coldest Christmas on record occurred before official records were begun; on Christmas Day, 1879, the valley shivered at 10 degrees below zero.
As for Christmas Day, 1989, Alder doesn't really want to be pinned down, but he says we have "a pretty good chance" of a White Christmas - especially if leftover snow counts.