A cyclical virus - not increased air pollution - is responsible for increasedhospitalization of local children for respiratory illnesses during winter months, according to a doctor hired by Geneva Steel to analyze data correlating PM10 emissions to such illnesses.
But Brigham Young University economics professor Arden Pope, who conducted a study that blames PM10 emmissions for the increased incidence of childhood respiratory illnesses, discounted the findings of Dr. Steven Lamm.Lamm met with representatives of media organizations Friday at Geneva Steel to discuss his findings.
Geneva Steel hired Lamm to review raw data and conclusions made in a study by Pope, which was published in the May 1989, issue of the American Journal of Public Health. It investigated the correlation between respiratory health and different levels of PM10 emissions from April 1985 to February 1988.
PM10 refers to particulate matter less than 10 microns in size that can be aspirated into the small cavities of the lungs and cause lung damage.
Pope concluded that "hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses were strongly associated with PM10 levels" and that the association was much stronger for children than for adults. Also, his study concluded that PM10 levels were specifically associated with higher rates of bronchitis and asthma. Pope's study showed that during 1986-87, when Geneva Steel was shut down, hospitalizations for respiratory illnesses decreased.
Lamm, an epidemiologist affiliated with Johns Hopkins University and a clinical assistant professor of pediatric medicine at Georgetown University, used Pope's study and data from Intermountain Health Care as the basis of his analysis. Lamm used data from Salt Lake County on PM10 levels and hospitalization for respiratory illnesses for comparison because PM10 levels in Salt Lake County are relatively stable over winter months compared to those in Utah County, which rise in the winter. He also said the greater incidence of respiratory illnesses in Salt Lake County than in other areas allowed a greater comparison to be made.
While Pope correlated increased hospitalizations for respiratory illness to PM10 emissions, Lamm concluded it was due to a virus called respiratory syncytial virus, which he said occurs in epidemic proportions in January and February. Lamm found that the time pattern and magnitude of RSV activity in Utah County corresponded to the peak hospitalizations for children in Utah County.
"The bottom line is that when you look at pediatric hospitalization data for Utah County and Salt Lake County from 1985 onward, the major determinate for hospitalization of children with respiratory conditions in Utah County was the magnitude of RSV," Lamm said.
Lamm said RSV was the cause of as much as 95 percent of the infantile cases of pneumonia and bronchiolitis, the most prevalent respiratory illnesses in Utah County.
But Pope and Sam Rushforth, chairman of the Utah Valley Citizens For Clean Air, responded to Lamm's report in a press conference Friday saying Geneva released the study to influence next week's State Implementation Plan hearing on meeting the PM10 standard.
Lamm said he found virtually no difference in occurences of RSV-related illnesses in Utah County, which had high PM10 levels in winter, and in Salt Lake County, which did not.
The strongest support for his conclusion comes from the fact that although PM10 emissions did not decrease during the winter of 1988-89, there was a decrease in respiratory hospitalizations, Lamm said.
Utah County Commissioner Brent Morris said, "This was done to influence the Air Conservation Committee. It threw a monkey wrench in the whole process."
Pope said the release of Lamm's study caught him by surprise and what he has seen of the study is "crude and very hastily put together. I feel quite comfortable that my study will hold up and be useful for future research."