By winning Nicaragua's presidency, Violeta Chamorro has already accomplished what few people thought she could. But whether she'll be able to govern remains to be seen, say Utahns familiar with the country.
"The Sandinistas may turn over the mantle of the presidency, but I have my reservations that they will turn over the elements of power," said William Furlong, a Utah State University political science professor who specializes in Latin American affairs.Furlong doesn't claim to be a perfect forecaster - he freely admits the election results surprised him. But he expects the Sandinistas to remain the largest party in the National Assembly, and the fractious, 14-party, UNO opposition coalition to fragment as Chamorro undertakes the Herculean task of reconstructing her country's government and economy.
In their decade in power, the Sandinistas have restructured the country's entire economic system, placing many key industries under government control. "New mechanisms for that or the revival of old capitalistic mechanisms are not going to be easy."
Key women's, students' and labor organizations are dominated by the Sandinistas. And the internal security system will have to change. "Their spy network and the police system, the whole police and what we would call an FBI-type organization is controlled and organized by Sandinistas for Sandinistas," he said.
"The Sandinistas should be able to continue to completely control the military and the militia. They have their key people in the bureaucracy who will not be easy to remove, although I'm sure Chamorro will try to."
Furlong fears that Nicaragua's instability will continue, precisely when the entire Central American region needs stability.
What's most needed, the professor said, is a regional economic development program funded by the United States, Japan, Western Europe and other countries and planned by the six Central American countries themselves. The money isn't likely to be forthcoming, though, especially with the countries of Eastern Europe also queuing up for aid, he said.
He predicted the United States and other countries will contribute symbolic amounts in the tens of millions of dollars to Nicaragua. But that country alone needs $3 billion or $4 billion "just to get started."
And the other countries of Central America are likely to lose some of their U.S. aid, now that the Contra war is winding down, he said. The cutbacks have already begun in Costa Rica.
Bruce Plenk, co-chairman of Utah's Central American Solidarity Coalition, was disappointed by Chamorro's victory because he had wanted the Sandinistas to get a chance - without the pressure of a U.S. embargo and Contra war - to return to their positive policies of 1981 and 1982, which helped the average Nicaraguan citizen. He pointed to their literacy and rural health campaigns.
"I don't believe that Chamorro's going to do that," he said. "Much of the money that comes in as economic aid will go into the private business sector, and they're not the people that need the help the most."
Plenk said there's no question the election was fair and the result reflected the people's will. But that will was shaped by the years of suffering caused by the U.S. embargo and Contra war, as well as by the money the United States poured into the elections, he said.
Like Furlong, Plenk predicted the UNO coalition will disintegrate and Nicaragua will end up with one group running the executive branch and another in charge of the legislative branch. He hopes this combination will produce cooperation and not paralysis.
Sen. Jake Garn, R-Utah, said he's pleased with the outcome of the voting.
"This will give the Nicaraguan people the first opportunity for freedom and peace in many decades, because they certainly didn't have it under (deposed dictator Anastasio) Somoza and they haven't had it under Daniel Ortega," he said.
"There are a lot of difficulties to be overcome," he stressed, adding that he would not favor unilateral U.S. aid but would support U.S. assistance combined with help from other countries.