If Richard Bradford is right, the economic bywords of the 1990s in Utah County very well could be "expansion" and "investment."
Bradford, executive director of the Utah Valley Economic Development Association, believes Utah County will make important economic advances during the next 10 years. Those who doubt the projected strength of the local economy are ignoring some significant trends, he said.Bradford bases his forecast on the outlook of three sectors of the local economy: education, the high-tech industry and steelmaking and related heavy industry.
"If I were a banker or a Realtor or a businessman in this community, I would look at those three sectors of the economy and say that it's a safe time to invest here," he said. "This is a great time to remodel your business, expand or buy real estate, because the economy is back in a high-growth mode."
Much of the growth over the next 10 years, he said, will come from expansion of the high-tech industry. Utah County residents, who used to lament the fact that their children had to leave the valley to find work, need look no further than high tech.
"The cure is here," Bradford said. "We'll hit 1,100 new high-tech jobs alone this year. Those complaining about not being able to find a job aren't following the market."
With growth in high-tech jobs running at 20 percent a year the past four years, Utah County lags behind only California's Silicon Valley and the Research Triangle in North Carolina as a center for high technology.
"We're now courting companies from Silicon Valley that are attempting to escape high costs," he said. "We're just at the beginning of the growth curve here."
While only about 9,000 people now are employed locally in high technology, "we're projecting that by the year 2000 at least 50,000 people will be employed in high tech in Utah County."
The high-tech industry alone is growing 10 times faster than the county's population, Bradford said. Unless more local students begin graduating in electronics and computers it won't be long before a labor shortage results.
That's where education comes into play. Because about 100,000 of Utah County's estimated population of 265,000 is in school, the demand for educators will remain high in Utah County during the 1990s.
The challenge, however, will be to guide students into fields that will make them employable, not only in high tech but in heavy industry as well.
Bradford predicts that Geneva Steel is in Utah Valley to stay, and related heavy industry will experience significant increases during the decade.
"Geneva's making money. All the big steelmakers are now profitable," he said.
"The trend of the past five years is probably an indication of what is going to happen in the next 10 to 20 years," Bradford said. "Steel and high tech will continue to grow, and those industries will support retail, housing, construction and the rest of the economy."
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Jobs vs. people
In the past five years, the number of jobs in Utah County has increased faster than the county's population.
984-85 3.1 percent 1.2 percent
985-86 3.3 percent 1.2 percent
986-87 2.8 percent 2.0 percent
987-88 9.3 percent 1.6 percent
988-89 5.6 percent 1.9 percent
Source: Job Service