What can and should the United States do if the war of nerves between the Soviet Union and Lithuania escalates into a full-scale economic or military crackdown on the secessionist republic?
That question became more acute Tuesday as the Soviets threatened to cut off natural gas supplies to Lithuania after the Baltic republic ignored Mikhail Gorbachev's warning to rescind independence legislation or face a boycott.The answer is that there is not much Washington can do except take steps that won't hurt Moscow much and would amount only to a symbolic gesture. But even a symbolic response would be better than no response at all.
Wisely, President Bush has ruled out any cancellation of the coming U.S.-Soviet summit as a means of expressing Washington's displeasure. Properly, the White House has concluded that the public interest requires moving ahead with negotiations to cut strategic nuclear weapons, chemical arms and non-nuclear forces as well as to follow through on talks on such pressing issues as the reunification of the two Germanys.
That leaves the United States with only a few options for exerting pressure on Moscow - options such as suspending or canceling trade talks with the Soviets, and backing away from a stated U.S. willingness to provide the ailing Soviet economy with credits and technical assistance.
What about providing U.S. aid to Lithuania or to any other Soviet republics that help Lithuania cushion the impact of a Soviet embargo? The trouble is that the United States might have to break through a Soviet blockade in order to deliver such aid.
The United States can't be indifferent to Lithuania's legitimate bid for self-determination. But Washington also should not risk a setback to the encouraging reforms being pursued by Gorbachev. This situation puts Bush in the position of trying to walk a slender and fraying tightrope.