The chances of Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev successfully holding together the Soviet empire grew shakier this week when the vast state of Russia - one of the 15 "republics" that make up the nation - voted for a declaration of sovereignty.
While the vote by the state parliament carried no legal force and stopped short of an outright declaration of independence, the event proved just how flimsy are the ties that bind the Soviet Union.The vote came even as Gorbachev met in Moscow with the presidents of the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia in an session dealing with their demands for independence.
Afterwards, the leaders of the Baltic states hinted that Gorbachev would lift the economic blockade against Lithuania and start negotiations for independence.
In addition, Gorbachev appeared to be considering a new, looser federation of sovereign entities for all of the 15 republics that make up the Soviet Union.
If so, that might ease some of the pressures for sovereignty or independence that threaten to disrupt the entire Soviet nation.
Earlier, Gorbachev had insisted that the Lithuania rescind its declaration of independence and that the Baltic states negotiate any secession through drawn-out rules under the Soviet constitution. Whether the new plan will alter that situation remains unclear.
President Bush has wisely refrained from pushing Gorbachev too hard on the Baltic independence issue, but many members of Congress are prepared to withhold approval of the U.S-Soviet trade treaty until the Kremlin lets the Baltic states go free.
While that is understandable and appeals to the best instincts of Americans, the problems for Gorbachev are not that simple. Clearly, the tiny Baltic states are not any more vital in themselves than the rest of Eastern Europe, which already has been cut free from the Soviet net.
But as Gorbachev understands very well, those three little states are being watched closely elsewhere in the Soviet Union. They represent a possible precedent for similar action by others.
That possibility was clearly dramatized in the parliamentary vote in the sprawling state of Russia. Delegates voted 907-13 in favor of sovereignty. At least some delegates would have preferred an outright declaration of independence, although that probably would not have passed.
What does sovereignty mean if it is not independence? Boris Yeltsin, president of the Russian republic, is the chief rival of Gorbachev and disagrees with him on the slow pace of economic reform. The state of Russia might adopt its own economic system. The state already plans to take charge of its own foreign trade.
Sentiment favoring secession in several other states is even more heated. If the Baltic states were allowed to leave, the state governments in the Ukraine and in Georgia might declare their outright independence as well.
Those three states - Russia, Ukraine, Georgia - are the most important, most geographically crucial and most powerful in the Soviet Union. The Russian republic alone accounts for two-thirds of the country. Their becoming independent nations would leave the Soviet Union in splintered shambles and lead to Gorbachev's own downfall. What might replace him in an effort to prevent that - perhaps a coup by the military - could be a lot worse.
Members of Congress should avoid trying to push too hard on the question of Lithuania vs. trade. Change in the Soviet Union is at a delicate and intricate stage. Heavy-handed interference by Congress could do more harm than good. Patience may pay far greater dividends.