Hundreds of Utahns will be killed, injured and left homeless Dec. 2 and 3 if the projection of a New Mexico climatologist comes true.
Iben Browning, a man some believe predicted the Oct. 17, 1989, quake in San Francisco four years before it happened, says the possibility of a major temblor rocking the Wasatch Fault is greater on Dec. 2 or 3 than it will be again for the next 50 years."If (the Wasatch Fault) goes any time in the near future, it will go on those days," he said.
But Utah earthquake experts are skeptical of - and somewhat irritated by - the projection.
A senior staff seismologist at the University of Utah said Browning's theory has not been submitted for scientific review and therefore has not been adequately evaluated.
"Just because one man, who is not a member of the scientific community, makes a prediction doesn't mean it's going to come true," Sue Nava said. "People should take it with a grain of salt."
Nava said scientists estimate there is a 20 percent chance that an earthquake of 7.5 or greater on the Richter scale will occur on the Wasatch Fault in the next 50 years.
"The Wasatch Fault will experience a major earthquake in the future, just as it has in the past, and people should prepare for it," Nava said. "But it's not any more likely to occur on Dec. 3 than any other day."
Nava also questioned whether Browning's "prediction" of the 1989 San Francisco earthquake was legitimate.
Browning says he doesn't "predict" earthquakes and other disasters but suggests when climatic conditions are ripe for such events.
His controversial projections are based on a theory that the alignment of the sun and the moon results in powerful tidal forces that could trigger earthquakes. Browning emphasizes the theory has nothing to do with astrology.
The climatologist, who works with investment firms by consulting on crop production, said that the sun-moon alignment on Dec. 2 and 3 will produce the greatest tidal forces in 60 years between 30 degrees and 60 degrees north latitude. Salt Lake City rests at 40 degrees north latitude.
"Anyone sitting close to the Wasatch Front, I am concerned for," Browning said.Besides being a climatologist and biologist, Browning served as a consultant to Chicago-based PaineWebber Inc. for 15 years.
During consultations with PaineWebber in 1985, he sent a chart of dates to the company designating when particularly high tidal forces would occur. Dates on the chart included Oct. 17, 1989 - the day the earthquake killed more than 50 people in the San Francisco area. Another date on his chart was Dec. 11, 1989 - eight days before Alaska's Mount Redoubt volcano belched fire and ashes, bringing travel to a screeching halt. High tidal forces also influence volcanic activity, according to Browning.
Three other 1989 dates, Aug. 23, Sept. 19, and Nov. 13, were on the chart. No significant natural disaster occurred on those days.
Paine Webber research analyst Judith Seime in Chicago said she had the chart in her desk prior to last October's San Francisco earthquake and is sure it was written by Browning in 1985.
Browning's not 100% accurate
David Stewart, director of the Center for Earthquake Studies at Missouri State University, says Browning's accuracy isn't 100 percent - but it's impressive.
Stewart spent two days with Browning examining how he makes the projections.
"His accuracy is said by various people to be 50 percent at worst, and 90 percent or better most of the time," Stewart said. "That he was correct in the Loma Prieta (San Francisco) event is a verifiable fact."
Stewart says Browning was also correct in predicting the eruption of Mount St. Helens May 18, 1980.
"He was speaking before a group of several hundred in Portland, Ore., on May 13, 1980, when he told them it would go `in about a week,' " Stewart said.
The announcement, according to Stewart, was caught on videotape and used by Paine-Webber in a national advertising campaign.
But Nava says Browning's prediction about Mount St. Helens was no big deal.
"Thousands of people could have said that," she said. "Scientists knew it was going to blow soon."
Browning insists he is not a charlatan. "I didn't intend for (the projection) to reach the public," he said.
Stewart says Browning's Dec. 3 projection for Utah has neither been scientifically proven nor disproven.
Utahns not only ones worrying
Utahns won't face Browning's ominous projection alone. Folks living in Indiana, Arkansas and Missouri are caught in the fever of the announcement as well.
In fact, it was an earthquake fault (the New Madrid) in these Midwestern states that motivated Browning to tell a group of clients about his December forecast.
The New Madrid Fault, like the Wasatch Fault, is due for a major rocker. Earthquake experts in the Midwest and South estimate there's a 50-50 chance that an earthquake greater than 6.0 on the Richter scale will strike along the fault, which is at 37 degrees north latitude, before the year 2000.
And Browning is betting that high gravitational forces caused by the alignment of the sun and the moon on Dec. 2 or 3 will trigger the quake.
People living near the fault are taking Browning seriously.
The Evansville Courier, a newspaper in Evansville, Ind., reported in its July 30 edition that some schools in Arkansas plan to close on Dec. 3.
Utah Earthquake Preparedness Manager Jim Tingey said he's seen predictions like this before in his six years of service.
"None of them have come true while I've been here," he said.
The most recent claims of doom came three years ago when the planets near Earth lined up. "Nothing happened then," he said.