The U.S. economy started growing again in the spring, rising at a modest annual rate of 0.4 percent, the government said Friday.
The reported increase in the gross national product, the country's total output of goods and services, was hailed by the Bush administration as a clear sign the recession has ended, but private economists were not so sure.The 0.4 percent increase from April through June followed two consecutive quarterly declines.
Private economists expressed disappointment in the second quarter figure, which was far below their expectations.
But the Bush administration had a far more positive interpretation of Friday's GNP report, contending that the upturn was the beginning of a sustained economic recovery.
Commerce Department Chief Economist J. Antonio Villamil said Friday at the government's briefing on the GNP figures that the report signals "the start of an economic recovery."
But John Albertine, the head of a Washington economic consulting firm, said that he believed the chances of the economy slipping back into recession were 50-50, given the absence of any factor that will provide significant growth.
Even if the GNP report is signalling the start of a recovery, many analysts are forecasting that it will be the weakest in history. They cite a variety of problems facing the economy, from strains on the banking system to huge levels of debt being carried by consumers, businesses and the government.