In his 10 years as Big Sky Conference commissioner, Ron Stephenson has seen one school come, but none go.
However, with the Big Sky's 18th football season just five weeks away, the conference and Stephenson are bracing for a body blow - the likely loss of Nevada, one of the nine-member league's strongest members.After Fresno State left the Big West Conference for the Western Athletic Conference this spring, Nevada became a candidate for Big West membership. The Reno school's desire to move up to I-A football had not been a secret.
Stephenson is convinced Big West officials will formally invite the Wolf Pack to replace Fresno, probably after they meet this coming week in Los Angeles.
"I would be surprised if the Big West doesn't extend an invitation to Nevada. And I'd be surprised if Nevada doesn't accept that," said Stephenson, in Sun Valley this weekend for the Big Sky's annual football coaches and sportswriters meetings.
Nevada has aggressively prepared for an eventual move to Division I-A football, expanding its MacKay Stadium to 26,000 seats this year.
"They've got plans in place to go to 30,000 seats next year, so that will give them their (I-A class) stadium size," Stephenson said. "They already meet the average attendance criteria of 17,000. . .. I think it's pretty much a slam-dunk for them."
Chris Ault, Nevada athletic director and football coach, speaks in more careful tones about the possibility of leaving the Big Sky after a 13-year marriage that has included three conference championships (1983, 1986, and 1990).
The Wolf Pack also has appeared in post-season play six times, losing the I-AA championship game to Georgia Southern last year 36-13.
"We have had a very satisfying relationship with the Big Sky," Ault said. "However, if the Big West extends an invitation, the University of Nevada is prepared to take a serious look at it to see how the move would benefit this university and the community of Reno."
"But I think they will look favorably upon us, and if they extend an invitation we more than likely would accept it," the coach added Saturday.
It seems unlikely the Wolf Pack would spurn such an opportunity. In addition to the lure of I-A football, membership in the Big West also would put Nevada in the same conference as instate rival Nevada-Las Vegas.
Stephenson and league officials already are mulling over the Big Sky's life as an eight-team conference. The 47-year-old commissioner winces at the prospect of losing Nevada, but sees no rush to court replacements.
"We won't be as strong a league without Nevada. There's no question about that," Stephenson acknowledged. "You lose a school like Nevada, there's nobody who can replace those kinds of schools, at least athletically."
That's not to say there aren't several schools which may be interested in joining the Big Sky. Stephenson names Cal State-Northridge, Sacramento State and Southern Utah State and potential candidates.
If the Big Sky were to go shopping, it probably would look for two new teams, not one. But for now, Stephenson expects the conference will be satisfied with regrouping as a smaller association.
"I don't see a big impetus for us to go back to nine teams. In fact, I've heard a number of our athletic directors say that if Nevada does leave, we should really stay at eight," he said.
Bad as prospects look for losing Nevada, it could have been worse, the commissioner said.
For at least two years, Boise State has longed to move up to I-A football.
"Boise was looking, but the (Idaho) state Board of Education has made it pretty clear to them that they're going to stay in the Big Sky with the other two Idaho schools (Idaho and Idaho State)," Stephenson said.
BSU - five times Big Sky titlist, four times a I-AA playoff team and the 1980 national champion - also had made overtures to the Big West.