Just as sports magazines have preseason Top 20 college football polls, political newsletters are now giving pre-political season guesses about who will win Senate seats next year.
Not surprisingly for heavily Republican Utah, most give the edge to Republicans for the seat being vacated by Sen. Jake Garn, R-Utah.But one newsletter - ironically one with historically conservative ties - sees the race as "highly vulnerable" and sees Democrats in exceptionally good position to win in Utah.
Making that assessment is The Political Report, a national newsletter published independently in Washington by Stuart Rothenberg.
Rothenberg told the Deseret News, "The conventional wisdom is that Utah is such a Republican state that people have difficulty imagining a Democrat elected to the Senate there.
"But Democrats have often won the governorship, and they hold two of three congressional seats. And Democrats in Idaho and Nevada - which are as conservative as Utah - have won statewide elections. Both (House) representatives in Idaho are Democrats."
Rothenberg added, "I've talked to a lot of national Republican operatives, and they are nervous about the race. They say it isn't in their pocket.
"If I had to bet my life on the race, I would bet that Republicans hold the seat. But saying the race leans Republican would give the wrong impression about the potential there. . .. Utah is still a Republican state, but if Republicans take that race for granted, they will wake up with an unhappy surprise."
What may be good for Utah candidates about what Rothenberg says is that many national political action committees watch newsletters such as his. And the more highly contested and vulnerable they say a race is, the more money the races attract.
PACs also look to the newsletters to see who are considered the most viable candidates.
Rothenberg sees the top Democratic candidates in Utah as Scott Matheson Jr. because of name recognition from his father, and Doug Anderson, who has said he will spend $1 million of his own money on the race. (Rep. Bill Orton, D-Utah, is also considering running, and Democrat Kyle Kopitke has entered the race).
He sees the top Republican as Joe Cannon. "Dick Wirthlin (President Ronald Reagan's pollster) will help Cannon, who has the personal financial resources to spend whatever he wants on the race."
(Other possible Republican candidates include Public Service Commissioner Ted Stewart, Salt Lake County Commissioner Mike Stewart, attorney Randall Mackay, businessman Jon Huntsman Jr., former Utah House Speaker Nolan Karras and current Speaker Craig Moody.)
The Cook Political Report, another national newsletter that is probably the most influential of all, sees the Utah race leaning Republican and is skeptical of Democratic chances.
"The problem for Democrats is that unlike the past cycles, most 1992 long-shot Democratic challengers will have to be financially self-sustaining," living on donations from Utahns, because of many other tight Senate races nationally competing for PAC money, Cook wrote. "It is hard to see how that can happen in Utah."
On the Democratic side, Cook doubts Orton will run, says Matheson's name recognition will not take him far because it is based on his father and sees Anderson as a candidate to watch because of his money.
On the Republican side, he said, "If Karras runs, he will be the nominal favorite at this stage with Cannon in a very tenuous second place."
The only political newsletter based in Utah, PowerBase, published by former Deseret News political writer and managing editor LaVarr Webb, also sees the Utah race as leaning Republican.
"But it is not a sure thing by any means," Webb said. "I'd have to say it leans Republican because polls show Utahns as Republicans and relatively conservative.
"But Utahns tend to vote more for the person than the party. They are not terribly partisan. So a Democrat who is relatively conservative should do well."
He said the race also looks interesting because of the large amount of personal money some candidates might spend. "Anderson has said he has $1 million to spend and I think Joe Cannon has that much if he wants to spend it. And early money is important" to prove credibility, Webb said.
Like sports magazines' Top 20 polls, more political predictions from newsletters are expected all the way through election day. The season is just kicking off now.