The WAC's Thrifty Car Rental Holiday Bowl berth will likely be decided Saturday at the home of the Holiday Bowl - Jack Murphy Stadium.
WAC leader Hawaii (5-1) meets San Diego State (4-2).If the Rainbows win they clinch a trip to the Holiday Bowl even if they lose their last WAC game to Wyoming the following week. If San Diego State wins, the Aztecs would go if they then defeat Fresno State the following week.
In the event of a three-way tie for the crown among BYU, Hawaii and San Diego State, the Aztecs go to the Holiday Bowl as they would have defeated both the Cougars and the Rainbows.
Because the game's in San Diego, the Aztecs are favored to win.
However, Hawaii is playing better than San Diego State.
Early in the season Marshall Faulk gave the Aztecs the edge against the teams they played - he was the difference in their 45-38 win over BYU. But the Heisman Trophy candidate has been quite mortal lately, needing 33 carries to gain 127 yards in the 17-6 loss to Wyoming last week and gaining only 60 yards in 18 carries the week before that against Colorado State.
Hawaii's main running back, Travis Sims, is now averaging more yards per carry than Faulk - 6.7 to 6.0 - and has rushed for over 1,000 yards. The 24th-ranked Rainbows are first in the conference in rushing (283 yards per game) and fourth nationally. San Diego State has a much better passing attack - 227 yards per game to 120 for Hawaii.
The last predominantly-rushing team to play the Aztecs in Jack Murphy Stadium was the Air Force Academy. The Falcons stunned the favored Aztecs, 20-17.
Both teams have lots of motivation, obviously with the title to be decided, but in Hawaii's favor, the Rainbows still feel like they aren't getting any respect - how else do you explain they're nationally-ranked yet still the underdog.?
The feeling here is that San Diego State doesn't seem to bounce back very well from a sloppy performance - last year's lackluster 28-17 loss to Tulsa in the Freedom Bowl after the shocking 52-52 tie with BYU being an example.
The call is . . . Hawaii 27, San Diego State 20.
HOLIDAY BOWL BLUES - As its host team, the Holiday Bowl will likely get either a 6-4-1 unranked San Diego State or a Hawaii team that won't bring many people to San Diego. The opponent looks like a 6-5 Big 10 team. Not exactly a marquee matchup.
The Holiday Bowl is considering using a clause that allows it to bypass a Big 10 team (which it can do if a team with eight wins and ranked isn't available) but faces bad relations with the Big 10 if it does so. The Big 10 has already pointed out that because of the agreement, the Holiday Bowl got a 10-1 7th-ranked Iowa team last year. It's time to accept the bad with the good, the Big 10 is telling the San Diego-based bowl.
WAC forecasts:
BYU at Air Force - The Cougars clinch a bowl berth with a win over the Falcons. Even if they lose to Utah the following week, at 7-5 they'd be welcome at the Copper or Freedom bowls. The Cougars have the Falcons' number - their last loss to Air Force being in 1982. This year shouldn't be any different as the Cougs are at the top of their game on defense and on offense - both in the air and on the ground. Only a slew of turnovers (the Cougs are last in the WAC in turnover margin) will prevent another win by BYU. Make it . . . BYU 34, Air Force 13 in a one-sided contest.
Wyoming at Utah - A battle between roller-coaster teams. They're either way high or way low. The 5-4 (3-3 in the WAC) Utes are the lone team to defeat Hawaii. They're also the lone team to lose to UTEP. The 5-5 (3-3 in the WAC) Cowboys defeated then co-WAC leader San Diego State last week, 17-6, to equal their longest winning streak of the season. Both are unpredictable. However, only one is at home - Utah. Because of Rice Stadium, figure it . . . Utah 31, Wyoming 27.
Other WAC games: New Mexico 34, UTEP 24 . . . the Lobos get the nod in game matching two last-place teams because game's in Albuquerque; Colorado State 34, Ohio U. 21 . . . Rams should prevail over 1-8 Ohio U. squad.