Idaho's economic vitality, unmatched in virtually any other state, has proven a much greater human magnet than policymakers initially expected.
But the Andrus administration's new economic forecast anticipates the kind of continued expansion needed to accommodate an influx of people approaching the boom years of the 1970s."It may be too many good stories in the national press," Gov. Cecil Andrus recently told Boise State University economists.
Still, the governor said, "We'll keep up with it. We're creating employment in the state. We'll be able to handle most of it."
The new forecast outlined a financial picture significantly brighter than even the relatively optimistic one offered by the administration five months ago. It came on the heels of a decision by the Division of Financial Management to increase its projection of revenues from the state tax system to all but erase the threat of an $11 million deficit.
And for the first time it showed just how attractive Idaho became after the rest of the nation plunged into recession.
"We've got pretty sound fundamental conditions in Idaho that can support expansion," and the general disenchantment with urban living accentuates Idaho's attributes, chief economist Michael Ferguson said.
The growth in non-farm employment, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, was stronger than anticipated in the winter forecast, easily surpassing 400,000 for the first time ever. It also was accompanied by improvements in the outlook for personal income.
Even the timber industry has begun recovering from its latest downturn. Only mining remained mired in economic problems, and many analysts expect that sector will never regain the prominence it once had.
That kind of economic strength is credited - or blamed - for drawing nearly 22,000 people into the state last year to fuel a 2.6-percent increase in Idaho's population, the largest one-year increase since the 3-percent annual jumps during the final half of the 1970s.
Another 18,000 people, many fleeing hard times in other states, are expected to move into Idaho this year, followed by over 30,000 more in 1993 and 1994.
The national population is expected to grow at only one-third that rate.
The growth is creating pressure on state facilities and services. The most visible example is spiraling enrollments that are leaving schools in many areas overcrowded.
Legislation was approved last winter setting up a framework for local government to impose fees on new development to help finance service expansion. It is being tested in Ada County, the state's largest and one of its fastest growing.
Ferguson said the economic momentum the state generated when its recovery finally began in the late 1980s led to the initial population spurt. Now that growth is fueling further economic expansion.
"We're not suffering the kinds of excesses that caused major problems in the Northeast, California and other areas where markets collapsed," he said. "We're not overbuilt."
The construction sector has been the biggest beneficiary. Employment has jumped from less than 14,000 as the recovery began in 1987 to more than 22,000 this year with still more growth predicted in the coming two years.
Overall, nearly 65,000 jobs were created since 1987 and 37,000 more should be generated through 1994.
Most are in the fastest-growing areas of the economy, trade and services. They account for nine of every 10 new jobs created over the past five years and eight of every 10 new jobs expected to generated during the coming three as the state's economy continues its shift away from traditional resource-based jobs.
"Idaho will continue to do well for the rest of the decade," Ferguson said.