Bill Clinton has pulled to within 7 percentage points of President Bush in Utah, the latest Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows, while disappointed former Ross Perot supporters have quickly picked sides, most going to Clinton.
In a just-completed survey, pollster Dan Jones & Associates found that if the election for president were held today, Republican Bush would get 43 percent of the Utah vote; Democrat Clinton would get 37 percent; Populist Lt. Col. Bo Gritz would get 5 percent; 4 percent would vote for someone else; and 11 percent were undecided.Perot's name will remain on Utah's ballot, but since he's officially dropped out of the race, Jones didn't include his name on the questionnaire in an attempt to see where Perot's support is going.
Bush is trailing Clinton badly in nationwide polls and in most other states as well. The fact that the president still leads Clinton in Utah is testimony to how Republican and conservative Utah voters are. By comparison, Clinton leads Bush by more than 30 percentage points in California.
Clinton's turnaround in Utah this year is remarkable. In a June 2-3 poll, Clinton had only 10 percent support in the state. In a June 30-July 1 poll, he had advanced to 12 percent support.
Then came Clinton's selection of Sen. Albert Gore, D-Tenn., as his vice presidential running mate; the Democratic National Convention in New York City; Perot's exit from the race; and the much-publicized Clinton-Gore bus caravan through Middle America.
Within the span of one month, Clinton's Utah support had vaulted to 37 percent.
"This is the greatest gain in a single poll in any presidential race I've ever measured," said Jones. "The Perot people went to Clinton. Republicans support Bush, but they're very nervous about what's happening in the race. And I've never seen Democrats so euphoric about being Democrats in Utah."
Bush visited Utah the week of the Democratic National Convention and was well-received. If the president hadn't come here, it's possible Clinton could have drawn closer or even passed him in the latest poll.
However, before Clinton's Utah supporters get too excited about being just 6 percentage points behind Bush, they should remember 1988.
Following Michael Dukakis' post-convention "bounce" that year, the then-Democratic nominee drew to within 5 percentage points of then-Vice President George Bush in Utah. A late-July 1988 poll by Jones found 46 percent of Utahns favored Bush, 41 percent Dukakis.
Bush then went on to have a good August convention - and he plans the same in two weeks in Houston - and to move well ahead of Dukakis in Utah polls. Bush won Utah with 66 percent of the vote to Dukakis' 32 percent - a landslide victory.
Clinton's improved prospects are clearly a combination of his image rehabilitation and the departure of Ross Perot.
In the June 2-3 poll, Perot actually shot past Bush in Utah. Perot had 42 percent support to Bush's 32 percent. By the June 30-July 1 poll, Bush had regained his Utah footing, leading Perot, 38-34 percent.
In the latest poll, Bush has increased by 5 percentage points, from 38 percent to 43 percent. Some of that may be from Perot supporters. But Clinton has jumped by 25 percentage points - much of which constitutes former Perot supporters turning to Clinton. Another indication that Clinton is getting the Perot vote comes in the independent voters' preference. Clinton picks up 45 percent of Utah's independent voters, Bush gets only 25 percent of them, Jones found.
Other Perot supporters may have gone to Gritz, the former Green Beret leader known for his combat valor. And it's likely much of the 4 percent "other" vote is former Perot people. Oddly enough, the "undecideds" were at 13 percent in the previous two Deseret News/KSL-TV polls and only at 11 percent in the latest poll, so it doesn't appear any Perot supporters went to that category.
Deseret News/KSL-TV Poll
If the election were held today for U.S. president, and the candidates were George Bush, Bill Clinton, and Bo Gritz, for whom would you vote?
George Bush 43%
Bill Clinton 37%
Bo Gritz 5%
Other 4%
Don't Know 11%