While public attention has focused on Washington, D.C. and the pivotal congressional vote on the trade pact between the United States, Mexico and Canada, a potentially even more important trade development is taking place in Seattle.
We're referring to this week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, which could make history in at least four ways:- Never before have so many Asian heads of state gathered together. Attending are representatives of more than a dozen Asian nations plus the United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.
- For the first time, an American president will meet the leaders of the Asian community, including China and Japan, in an informal setting.
- If all goes as expected, the forum could eventually change from a discussion group into a formal trade association rivaling the European Economic Community.
- The very fact that the APEC is meeting on U.S. soil signals a shift in Washington's attention away from Europe and toward Asia.
This shift is due not just to the demise of the Cold War but to the development of Asia into the world's fastest-growing region, with economic links that extend across the Pacific to America's shores.
The economic prowess of Japan and China are well known. Even more impressive, though, are the performances of South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. These four nations are among the fastest growing countries in the world, with an average growth rate that has been close to or more than 10 percent a year for the past three decades. More recently, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand also have shown strong growth due to their rich resources and progress toward free enterprise.
What difference does all this make to Americans? Plenty! Already nearly 2.5 million U.S. jobs depend on exports to the Asia-Pacific area. More than 40 percent of U.S. trade is with Asia. Last year alone, American firms sold Asia $120 billion worth of products. As this area grows, so can business opportunities for Americans - if Washington can rise to the challenge. It won't always be easy. There are plenty of present and potential conflicts.
For one thing, free markets do not always mean a free press or freedom of expression. China's rulers aren't the only Asian leaders who think that democracy is incompatible with the stresses and challenges of rapid economic growth.
For another thing, there are rifts over tariffs and trade deficits. Though Washington is particularly troubled by the $49.5 billion trade deficit with Japan, the United States is also running a $18 billion deficit with China, a $9.5 billion deficit with Taiwan and a $2 billion deficit with South Korea.
Then there are the challenges posed by China's territorial disputes with some of its Asian neighbors and Beijing's propensity for selling destabilizing military equipment in the volatile Middle East.
The challenge for the United States during and long after this week's historic summit meeting in Seattle is to develop stronger partnerships in the Asia-Pacific area. But this task will involve a delicate balancing act since trade policy cannot be formulated and applied in isolation from political considerations.