On Wednesday, Feb. 17, Oscar nominations will be announced.
Will they follow the traditional path, mimicking the Golden Globe winners and nominees for the annual Director's Guild award?Probably.
But the field will have to be narrowed somewhat to accommodate the five-to-a-category rule, since the Globes have separate arenas for comedy and drama.
And, of course, movies that have failed to perform well at the box office don't have a chance, save certain acting exceptions.
Recapping, for those who snoozed through the program, these were the major movie winners of this year's Golden Globe Awards:
- Best dramatic picture: "Scent of a Woman"
- Best comedy picture, "The Player"
- Best dramatic actor: Al Pacino, "Scent of a Woman"
- Best comedy actor: Tim Robbins, "The Player"
- Best dramatic actress: Emma Thompson, "Howards End"
- Best comedy actress: Miranda Richardson, "Enchanted April"
- Best supporting actor: Gene Hackman, "Unforgiven"
- Best supporting actress: Joan Plowright, "Enchanted April"
- Special Award: Robin Williams, the voice of the genie in "Aladdin"
- Best director, Clint Eastwood, "Unforgiven"
And the Director's Guild nominees are:
- Robert Altman, "The Player"
- Clint Eastwood, "Unforgiven"
- James Ivory, "Howards End"
- Neil Jordan, "The Crying Game"
- Rob Reiner, "A Few Good Men"
Most notable in the latter list, in light of the Globes awards, is the omission of "Scent of a Woman" director Martin Brest. That may slow down the impetus for this film as the nominees are thinned out and the winners are voted for.
There has also been controversy about members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, who vote the Golden Globe winners, being flown to New York to see "Scent of a Woman" and pal around with Pacino, with all expenses paid by the studio. The flap has further tainted the Globes, an already heavily criticized awards program, and the backlash could spill over as anti-"Scent" in the Oscar race.
That doesn't change the fact that the Globes often portend the Oscars, however. So, we can assume that the Globe winners will likely end up as Oscar nominees - if not necessarily Oscar winners.
And it's probably a safe bet that Spike Lee is annoyed at being passed over again (this time for "Malcolm X") by the Director's Guild (he failed to receive a Golden Globe nomination, as well). This may have more to do with his colleagues' level of tolerance about Lee's constant whining than the merits of his film.
Anyway, taking all this into consideration, let's get down to predicting the Oscar nominations:
- Best Picture/Director: Look for these nominees to parallel the Director's Guild, unless a dark horse unexpectedly climbs in. If that happens, it will likely be one of these frontrunners: "Scent of a Woman," "Lorenzo's Oil," "A River Runs Through It" or "Malcolm X" - and/or those films' respective directors, Martin Brest, George Miller, Robert Redford and Lee.
- Best Actress: In the acting categories, the best actress nominees should be fairly easy to call, since there was a significant dearth of strong female roles in 1992 films. Look for Thompson and Richardson (unless Richardson slips into the supporting category for "Damage" or "The Crying Game"), along with Susan Sarandon for "Loren-zo's Oil"; and Mary McDonnell, "Passion Fish" (which has not opened in this area yet). The fifth slot will be taken by a weaker choice, either Shirley MacLaine, "Used People"; Geena Davis, "A League of Their Own"; Meryl Streep, "Death Becomes Her" - or one of this pair of real longshots, Sharon Stone, "Basic Instinct," or Michelle Pfeiffer, "Batman Returns."
- Best Actor: This one's a little tougher, but look for Pacino and Robbins, along with Denzel Washington, "Malcolm X"; Jack Lemmon, "Glengarry Glen Ross"; and Tom Cruise, "A Few Good Men." Other possibilities are Robert Downey Jr., "Chaplin"; Jack Nicholson, "Hoffa"; Harvey Kietel, "Bad Lieutenant"; Stephen Rea, "The Crying Game"; Jeremy Irons, "Damage"; and Clint Eastwood, "Unforgiven."
- Best Supporting Actress: Certainly Plowright will be here, likely joined by Alfre Woodard, "Passion Fish"; Judy Davis, "Husbands and Wives"; Geraldine Chaplin, "Chaplin"; and the aforementioned Richardson. Two dark horse pos-si-bili-ties are Helena Bonham Carter, "Howards End," and Marisa Tomei, "My Cousin Vinny."
- Best Supporting Actor: Hackman, of course, and Jack Nicholson, "A Few Good Men." But the other three slots are up for grabs. The most likely contenders are Tom Skerritt, "A River Runs Through It"; Sydney Pollack, "Husbands and Wives"; Ray Walston, "Of Mice and Men"; Al Pacino, "Glengarry Glen Ross"; David Paymer, "Mr. Saturday Night"; Albert Finney, "The Playboys"; and Robin Williams, the voice of the genie in "Aladdin."
How close am I?
We'll find out Wednesday.
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK: Lara Flynn Boyle, one of the stars of David Lynch's TV series "Twin Peaks" and currently co-starring with Timothy Hutton in "The Temp":
"Whenever I meet people whose parents are still together, I'm amazed. They're freaks. They make me nervous. Seeing people still married after 20 years is like watching a TV show."