A disaster similar to the violent end of the Branch Davidians could happen in Utah, two Weber State sociologists say.
Not only can it happen, it has happened, they said - citing the Singer-Swapp standoff that ended with the Jan. 29, 1988, shooting death of state corrections officer Fred House.In a panel discussion on Thursday at the university, sociologists Wayne Thompson and Thom Kearin told students that religious cults are everywhere in the nation, including Utah, and the Waco incident could happen again.
Both men gave their opinions about the deaths of self-proclaimed prophet David Koresh and his followers last month in Texas.
Also on hand was Ogden police officer Phil Howell, a local hostage negotiator, who said he didn't know what negotiations took place in Waco but gave students insights into how most hostage negotiators operate.
Trouble in Texas began on Feb. 28, when law enforcement officials stormed the religious group's compound, resulting in the deaths of four officers and six cult members. Fifty-one days later, the FBI invaded the compound, a fire broke out and Koresh and 85 of his followers died. Seventeen of those who died in the blaze were children.
Thompson said he and other sociologists were dismayed when government officials refused to seek the advice of cult experts while attempting to end the standoff.
But Kearin said that the outcome was inevitable because when the four officers were killed, the group set itself up for suicide. "The federal government will prevail," he said.
"What would compel someone to be a member of the group?" he asked. Or, as a fellow sociologist phrased it, "Who would not join a group like that?"
Kearin explained, "We are all seekers. All seekers are trying to be belongers."
In trying to explain the makeup of a cult, Thompson pointed out that first a leader must evolve, a leader who can convince members that he can walk on water. It's not the person, said Thompson, it's the message.
"If they (group members) feel he is the divine leader, they will die for him," Thompson added.
Howell pointed out that 85 percent of hostage incidents in this country end peacefully. The remaining 15 percent end in injury or death.
The No. 1 priority for hostage negotiation is "preservation of life," he said. For successful negotiation, officers must first realize that the hostage taker wants to live.
Howell said other steps include letting the hostage taker know that authorities have the resources of force, that the lines of communication are open and the hostage taker can't get away.
"Negotiators have to find out what this guy wants," added Howell. "Everything is talked about, but not everything is conceded."