No one is sure how many copies of "Aladdin" will be sold when the Disney film is released on video-cassette on Oct. 1. All the industry knows is that the title looks like the biggest ever - and by so much that it won't even be close.
Always at the top of the exploding video sales market, each Disney title regularly seems to outsell the previous one by several million copies or more - "Little Mermaid" (1990), 10 million; "Fantasia" (1991), 14 million; "Beauty and the Beast" (1992), the current record holder, an estimated 20 million. For "Aladdin," industry analysts say, take that 20 million and add another 10 million."All the factors are aligned," says Carl Mann, a vice president of Baker & Taylor, a large video and book distributor, almost as if he were describing an astrological event. "It's an excellent promotion, timed to hit at the right moment."
The industry might talk about 30 million cassettes, but not Disney. "That's not our projection," says Bill Mechanic, the company's president of international theatrical distribution and worldwide video. But, he adds, "Everything we're looking at says it will be bigger than `Beauty.' "
"Aladdin," which will arrive shortly before the video holiday sales season, is priced at $24.99, but the tape will be steeply discounted in many places, adding greatly to its potential. A theatrical run that earned $200 million at the box office also helps. Perhaps most important, "Aladdin" will hit at a time when people are buying all kinds of tapes in record numbers (an estimated 385 million of them in 1992).
While video rentals have flattened somewhat in recent years, sales are growing annually by more than 25 percent. Most best-selling tapes are children's titles, and most of those are Disney's. In fact, distributors say the country's video-buying habit was fostered by Disney, whose coattails carry other titles.
"No question, without Disney there wouldn't be a sales market," says Jerry Frebowitz, president of Movies Unlimited, a Philadelphia video chain and one of the country's largest mail-order houses.
Not that many dealers are complaining, but Disney movies themselves ride a marketing scheme that some say has more than a whiff of friendly persuasion. In a precisely timed rotation, a dozen Disney classics - from flagships of the '40s and '50s like "Bambi," "Peter Pan," "Cinderella" and "Fantasia" to flashy, rambunctious titles of the '80s and '90s like "Aladdin" - are made available for limited periods. During that time, stores are invited to stock up. Then Disney refuses to take any more orders and retires the film for 10 years.
Distribution periods usually last for several months but vary according to title. "Fantasia" was cut off after only 50 days. "Pinocchio," the first of the classics on tape, was offered from 1985 to 1987, returned to the market in March 1993 after a theatrical run and will be withdrawn again next March. "Aladdin" also will be cut off in March after five months in distribution.
The moratorium sets up films for future rounds of theatrical and video release. The threat of cut-off also builds demand and gets consumers to buy before supplies run out, which for some titles can be quickly. "A dealer buys an extra 500 copies, and they're gone in a month," Frebowitz says. Dealers of rare tapes report that copies of "The Little Mermaid," which was withdrawn in 1991, bring as much as $300.
As one Disney title "goes away," as the studio puts it, the next takes over. "One feeds the other, feeds the other, feeds the other," Mechanic says. After "Pinocchio" came "Sleeping Beauty" and "Lady and the Tramp," both offered in 1987-88, "Cinderella" in 1988-89, "Bambi"' in 1989-90, "The Little Mermaid" and "Peter Pan" in 1990-91, "The Jungle Book" in 1991-92 and "101 Dalmatians" in 1992-93.
"Snow White," now in theatrical re-release, is the only classic Disney says will never be on tape. (But then the studio said the same thing about "Fantasia.")
Critics note that Disney films, old and new, appeal to grown-ups as well as their offspring, a vital factor in the '90s, the new age of the family audience. "The new films are crossing over to adults the way animated movies did in the '40s and '50s," Mechanic says.
As the "Aladdin" juggernaut approaches, Frebowitz says his one misgiving is the moratorium strategy. "I can see taking `Aladdin' off the market after two years, but not when it comes out in October and is over in March," he says. "If somebody's got $25 in their hand and wants to give it to you, I don't understand why I have to say to them, `Sorry, I can't take it.' "
VIDEO QUESTION
Question: When do video stores learn about forthcoming movies and how can I get the information?
Answer: Video dealers learn about new releases through order bulletins, or "mailers," published weekly by cassette wholesalers. Generally the stores are first informed about a title two months before its scheduled release. These bulletins are not available to the general public, but you may find a store willing to let you see one occasionally.
Do you have a question you'd like answered? Send your queries to Andy Wickstrom, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Box 8263, Philadelphia, PA 19101.
NEW VIDEOS
LOVE IS A MANY SPLENDORED THING - This handsome, well-done tear-jerker about a doomed love affair in Hong Kong during the Korean War is back as part of FoxVideo's classics series. Jennifer Jones stars as a beautiful Eurasian doctor who ignores class and racial barriers to fall for a married American war correspondent (William Holden). The acting is fine, believable, the scenery great and the Oscar-winning title song as infectious as ever. 1955. 102 minutes. FoxVideo. No rating. $19.98. - Jack E. Wilkinson (United Press International)
BARBARIANS AT THE GATE - This fast-paced journey through the thorny thickets of big business details the rise and and fall of Nabisco CEO F. Ross Johnson. And, like the roller coaster ride it resembles, it's dizzying but great fun. Johnson (played with glee by James Garner) is a high-living supersalesman dedicated to a buyout of diversified Nabisco. He's challenged in the multimillion-dollar bidding by the cool master of the buyout, Henry Kravis (Jonathan Pryce), but Johnson's sure the board will take his bid until someone exposes Johnson's gaudy lifestyle and secret, enormous remuneration. A sharp picture of a high stakes power struggle, well-done with just enough suspense. 1993. 105 minutes. Closed captioned. HBO Video. VHS only. Rated R. - Jack E. Wilkinson (United Press International)
GOLF AND ALL ITS GLORY - Golfers might want to hook up with this series, featuring interviews with the game's great players - Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Greg Norman - as well as information on life on the pro tour, golf course design, equipment and much more. Hosted by CBS golf commentator Gary McCord, such diverse subjects are explored as "Golf vs. Technology," "Links with Tradition," "At Play on Golden Mountain," "The Magic of the Majors," "From Paupers to Princess" and "Why Golf." Paramount Home Video, six tapes, $19.95 each ($119.70 for the set), 48 minutes each. - Richard T. Ryan (Newhouse News Service)