In the rapidly changing ostrich industry, this could be a bad time to have your head in the sand.
The strange tale of ostrich ranching in America appears ready for another twist as the industry turns the corner from a red-hot "breeder market" with birds commanding princely sums to a more realistic market based on the price of birds sold for slaughter.Industry insiders say the shift could be close at hand.
It is likely to shake out small hobby breeders who bought birds for $30,000 to $40,000 a pair in hopes of breeding chicks for sale to other potential breeders.
An ostrich can produce 50 or more eggs a year, although many chicks don't survive to adulthood.
Ostrich breeder Gene Pfeiffer is president of the Southwind Ostrich Ranch near Mount Vernon, Ind., which has about 700 ostriches and expects to have 1,000 by the end of the year.
Pfeiffer said ostrich slaughter operations are on the drawing boards in Indiana and in Arizona, home to the company's other operation.
A pioneer in the U.S. ostrich industry, Pfeiffer said prices for ostriches are beginning to fall from the astronomical levels that have sustained the breeder market.
He believes that the United States has more ostriches than anyone realizes, possibly more than the industry's South African homeland.
As prices fall from around $15,000 per bird to less than $1,000, the worst hurt may be those who bought birds recently based on the economics of a breeding market.
The only birds continuing to command such high prices may be those valued for their genetic qualities, which might make them desirable as breeders.
The promise of fortunes to be made in raising ostriches - birds can sell for $45,000 per breeding pair - has lured many Americans since the first ostriches mysteriously appeared in the United States in the late 1980s.
The American Ostrich Association claims more than 3,000 members but does not keep track of the number of ostriches they own.
Ostrich breeding had been a captive industry of South Africa, which fiercely guarded its birds and its secrets.
Ostrich promoters predicted that ostrich farming would become an even bigger industry due to the larger potential market here for the birds' low-fat red meat, the supple leather from their hides and their luxurious plumage.
Pfeiffer, a former president of the association, concedes that the industry has had image problems.
Some promoters didn't warn buyers that chicks often don't survive, that they are a highly speculative investment, and that the commercial market might not materialize.
They often pointed only to the long existence of a commercial ostrich industry in Africa and the high prices paid for breeders.
Susan Adkins, former executive director of the association, says some people have been burned by unethical breeders who sold more chicks than they could deliver.
After demanding deposits of up to 50 percent on ostrich chicks, she said, some breeders would tell the customer that their chick had died.
"Don't agree to give a deposit, or not much of a deposit," Adkins said.
"If you possibly can, see the birds or visit the ranch."
Pfeiffer says unethical breeders are in a minority. He expects them to be weeded out as the industry evolves.
Breeders also have shifted their marketing focus mainly to cattle ranchers and others with an agricultural background.
"Out of every 10 breeders, I think nine would now say they're not looking to bring in amateurs," Pfeiffer said.