Windows 95, soon to replace the enormously popular Windows from Microsoft, is igniting profits for software designers, computermakers and chip manufacturers - and may make personal computers even more popular than today.
"Windows 95 will transform the computer industry just as the automatic transmission did the auto industry," said David Powers, an analyst with Edward D. Jones. "Windows 95 will be the most significant launch the PC industry has seen in the last decade.""This is going to benefit the computer industry a lot," Powers said.
Analysts say Microsoft will sell at least $1 billion worth of Windows 95 within a year of its August launch. The company's stock has risen from less than $48 to more than $91 over the last year, as investors anticipate future profits.
The operating system is expected to be so popular that floppy diskmakers are warning their customers a shortage is coming. Windows 95 will come on a dozen or so disks, and Microsoft is buying so many that manufacturers aren't sure they can keep up with demand.
Software designers around the world are modifying programs to fully benefit from Windows 95's greater speed.
Computermakers are gearing up to build the more powerful PCs needed to run Windows 95, which will speed the obsolescence of existing computers.
And IBM, repeatedly defeated by Microsoft in the marketplace, may see its competing operating system, OS2 Warp, disappear. IBM says Warp won't run software designed for Windows 95, meaning consumers must irrevocably choose between IBM or Microsoft. Nearly everyone bets Microsoft will win.
So what is Windows 95?
"It looks like Macintosh," one Windows 95 user said recently.
Windows 95 does indeed feel more like an Apple Macintosh than its 12-year-old ancestor, Windows. Mac has a trash can for deleting files. Windows 95 has a recycling bin. Mac is known for stability and resistance to crashing. Windows 95 comes with crash-resistant features.
Gone are Program Manager and group icons of related software.
Boot up Windows 95 and a toolbar appears with a single button bearing the word Start. Click on Start and a list of applications appear. Click on the word Ami-Pro, for example, and the word processor application pops up.
Windows 95 tries to make IBM-compatible personal computers as easy to run as the Mac.
One of the most difficult tasks in setting up a computer is getting the printer, CD drive and other peripherals to work. There are ports to be assigned, device drivers to install, IRQ conflicts to resolve.
Windows 95 features Plug and Play. The operating system lets the user plug in a laser printer or modem, and Plug and Play does the rest - or at least is supposed to. People testing the system say it sometimes fails.
And Windows 95 promises speed.
The operating system uses 32-bit code, which can move data at higher speed than the 16-bit code used by previous versions of Windows. As a result, Windows 95 memory management is more efficient and printing and other tasks finish faster. At least in theory, the system is more stable.
While 32-bit code makes Windows 95 faster, it is also likely to make dozens of software companies richer.
To fully use 32-bit speed, softwaremakers around the world are racing to rewrite the internal code of their products. A new generation of data base programs, word processors, games, and communications software will be on the market soon, all designed for Windows 95.
Powers, the analyst with Edward D. Jones, says software companies like Symantec, which sells utility programs, can expect a flood of sales as computer users upgrade their software. With 70 million or so Windows users around the world and the number growing every day, the market for upgraded software is enormous.
Almost alone, IBM is deciding not to get involved.
IBM won't make its OS2 operating system compatible with the new software designed for Windows 95. Because Microsoft outsells IBM by a huge margin, industry analysts speculate IBM may be getting out of the market for operating systems.
Windows 95 has a little secret, certain to please computermakers like Compaq, and chipmakers like Intel - if your computer is more than a year or so old, Windows 95 may not run on it.
Microsoft says Windows 95 needs at least a 386DX system with four megabytes of RAM to function. People who have used it say that requirement is absurdly optimistic. Windows 95 needs at least a fast 486 system with eight megabytes of RAM, and really runs best on a Pentium with 16 megabytes of RAM.
Joe Haspiel, of Washington University's Center for the Application of Information Technology in St. Louis, said Windows 95 actually runs slower than Windows on some PCs.
"We found that on a machine with a lot of memory, it was roughly equivalent to Windows speed," he said. "But it took more memory to get to that speed."
The need for more memory means millions of potential customers around the world will have to get rid of their 386 machines with their four megabytes of RAM, and invest in a new Pentium with four times as much memory.
Industry analysts say Intel and other chipmakers will race to keep up with the demand created by Windows 95. And retailers like Circuit City and others in the rapidly growing group of computer superstores can expect sales to jump.
Windows 95 will drive more than the market for computers and software. Even the humble floppy disk is affected. Microsoft and other softwaremakers need all they can get for their new products.
"Our disk suppliers are telling us there is going to be shortage due to the blowout of Windows 95," said Dan Fuller, owner of Executive Personal Computers in Florissant, Mo. "We have heard that from three disk suppliers."
"The supply of floppy disks is so abundant, it must be a really massive demand," he said.
Despite the computer industry's optimism about the impact of Windows 95, some consumers may find themselves a little disappointed, at least at the beginning.
Microsoft had planned to include Microsoft Network - an on-line service similar to Compuserve or American Online - in Windows 95. Network would have a tremendous advantage over its competitors, simply because it would be included on most of the PCs sold around the world.
Last week the Justice Department issued subpoenas, seeking information about the effect Microsoft Network would have on the other online services. The network software could be dropped if the government intervenes to preserve competition.
And then there is the continuing problem with all new software - early versions have problems that later must be fixed.
Windows, for example, was not a particularly reliable system when it was first introduced. With each new version, Microsoft had to issue "patches," small repairs to fix glitches. Windows 95 is certain to have its own bugs.
Then there is the network software Microsoft has kindly built into Windows 95. It's meant for small networks, a real estate sales office, for example. It is not meant for industrial strength networking with many users and a systems operator.
Several people who have set up Windows 95's network say it is not especially simple to use, and anyone hoping to install it needs a good deal of expertise or special training - exactly what operators of small networks were hoping to avoid.