BOB DOLE SEEMS TO THINK we can lift the arms embargo on Bosnia's Muslims, stop worrying about that part of the world and get on with the job of electing him president.
In theory it sounds good: end an obviously failed U.N. peacekeeping mission, give the outgunned Muslims weapons parity with the Serbs and tell them, as Sen. John Kerry put it, to "have a nice war."In practice it stinks. It would take five months for U.N. peacekeepers to withdraw before we could even begin to level the playing field and another six months or so to arm and train Bosnia's Muslims in the use of heavy weapons they now lack.
Who would do it? Where would it be done? And what makes anyone think the Serbs would sit around and do nothing while the Muslims re-arm?
The Serbs can, in fact, be counted on to make a concerted effort to win the war before the playing field is leveled. That means massive assaults on the remaining Muslim enclaves, without NATO interference, and a new orgy of "ethnic cleansing," without the United Nations being there to render even humanitarian assistance.
London's Economist points out that "to engineer such events deliberately, without a clear idea of some larger benefit, would be an extraordinarily immoral move."
Even if our lawmakers are not overly concerned with questions of morality, the embargo cannot be lifted quickly. Although the House has voted once before on such a measure, it must do so again, despite Wednesday's Senate vote, because its first bill was lumped together with other legislation. The full Congress must then muster a two-thirds vote to override a presidential veto.
Senate amendments give President Clinton one last chance to ask the U.N. Security Council to lift the embargo, failing which he can request a General Assembly vote.
Even then, arms shipments to the Muslims could not begin until a withdrawal of U.N. peacekeepers, or 12 weeks after the Bosnian government formally requests termination of the U.N. mission. Both the House and Senate bills give Clinton a waiver to order further delays if he believes the peacekeepers to be in jeopardy.
NATO's plan for removing the 22,000 U.N. soldiers - ironically code-named "Operation Determined Effort" - envisions a 20-week pullout with a huge infusion of troops to protect the departing peacekeepers.
That means the 25,000 Marines and Army infantrymen Clinton has pledged to safeguard the U.N. withdrawal would be in a ground combat role for about five months. Even if they confine themselves to protecting U.N. personnel only, not Bosnia's civilian populace, they are bound to get caught in crossfires as the Serbs try to annihilate the defenseless Muslims.
And even if the Serbs hold fire until the withdrawal is completed, they're not going to allow arms shipments to reach the Muslims unhindered.
So let's stop deluding ourselves. The embargo should have been lifted long ago. Now it's too late.