Though the 1996 Utah Legislature won't convene for another week, it's not too soon to start thinking about following the lawmakers' regular session with a special one.
That's what may have to be done if Congress and the White House don't soon resolve their budget differences and stop alternating federal shutdowns with stopgap spending plans that quickly expire.Yes, it comes as a distinct relief that idled federal employees are going back to work after their second involuntary furlough.
But Congress provided only enough money for a partial restoration of federal services - the most visible ones. This money won't last beyond Jan. 26. Nor is there any guarantee that the recent shutdown won't be followed by another one - or even more.
What a daunting prospect for governors and state legislatures trying to work out their own budgets. The continuing crisis in Washington means the states can't be sure how much federal funding they will get. Nor can the states be certain about what their responsibilities will be for running federal health and welfare programs.
There's room for some optimism - up to a point. The latest short-term funding measure buys more time for Congress and the White House to thrash out their budget differences, including those over tax cuts, changes to Medicare and Medicaid, and a seven-year plan to balance the budget. Even if there is a third federal shutdown, the impact could be limited. Many creditors have been providing temporary grace-periods and in some cases even loans to furloughed federal workers. Moreover, the Associated Press reports that most private economists concur that the federal shutdowns so far have made only a modest impact on the $7 trillion U.S. economy, reducing the gross domestic product no more than 0.3 per cent.
But there are sharp limits to how long and how often creditors can be expected to remain patient. If Congress and President Clinton don't soon come to some meeting of the minds, the prospect of continuing indecision could do much more damage than just make life hard for state legislators. More important, the confidence of the financial community could be shaken enough to send bond and stock prices into a tailspin. Rising interest rates would hurt key sectors of the economy - housing, auto sales and business investment.
Already there have been indications of what could happen. On Dec. 17, the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted 101 points, followed by a 50 point drop two days later. Both selloffs were blamed on jittery investors reacting to setbacks in the federal budget negotiations.
At this point, there's no need to panic. But there is a clear need for the public to send Washington a pointed message. The message should be that chronic budget deadlock won't go unpunished. Both Congress and the White House should consider the possibility that the ultimate winners from any failure to compromise won't be Republicans or Democrats but some third political party.