With three weeks to go in 1996, more passengers have died in airline crashes this year than in any other, even though statistics show that air travel is becoming safer over time.
This year's high death toll is in part a result of the continuing rapid increase in the number of flights worldwide and, with it, the chances for an accident."Flying isn't becoming inherently more dangerous," said Stuart Matthews, president of the Flight Safety Foundation, an organization based in Alexandria, Va., that is supported by the airline industry. "But because we are getting significantly more flying, we're just going to see more and more accidents."
According to Airclaims, a London-based company that collects accident data, 1,187 passengers have been killed on commercial jet flights this year. That figure excludes deaths from terrorist acts and from crashes of long-troubled Soviet-built planes.
Industry experts are quick to note that annual numbers for passenger deaths are notoriously volatile. In 1984, the year before the previous record of 1,169 was set, just 2 passengers were killed worldwide in Western-built jets. Over time, the experts say, air travel has become safer, when measured by the ratio of fatal accidents to the total number of flights. Even with the deaths this year - triple the 1995 total of 383 - flying remains the safest mode of transportation, the experts add.
But the public's perceptions of increased risk, and some harsh new realities, have U.S. government officials and industry executives moving along a number of fronts to improve aviation safety worldwide. In particular, they are focusing on the archaic safety systems and often inadequately trained pilots, mechanics and air traffic controllers of less-developed regions of the world, where many of the crashes have been occurring.
Still, with the increased volume of flights worldwide, the industry would have to lower its accident rate just to keep the number of crashes roughly constant each year.
Moreover, the experts say, the regions with the biggest rise in air traffic are those with the most problematic air traffic control equipment and personnel. These regions - Africa, Asia, Central America and South America - have accounted for the bulk of the deaths in most years.
For example, 349 people were killed Nov. 12 when a Saudi Arabian Airlines Boeing 747 collided with a Kazakhstan Airlines airliner near New Delhi. The accident, the worst midair crash in history, has focused attention on India's air traffic system, which did not have the capability of showing the vertical separation of the two planes and alerting controllers that they were on a collision course.
The result of all this is an ominous estimate increasingly heard in industry circles: If the current accident rate remains steady and air travel continues to grow rapidly, a passenger jet may crash as often as once a week by the year 2010.