India's first Hindu nationalist government is almost certain to be toppled Tuesday in a vote of confidence only 14 days after it assumed office following inconclusive national elections.
The fall of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led government of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee is expected to be followed by the creation of another unstable government by the United Front, a banding of secular groups supported by the Congress Party and two Communist groups.Vajpayee moved a motion of confidence in his ministers Monday, launching a heated seven-hour debate which will conclude Tuesday.
No party succeeded in winning a majority in the elections last month, and the BJP has since been unable to gather enough support from other parties to ensure its survival.
The BJP and its allies won 194 of 545 seats in the lower house, making it the single-largest party. Congress, the former ruling party, won only 136 seats, its worst result ever, and has decided not to attempt to lead a government.
That has left the way open for H.D. Deve Gowda, chosen by the United Front as its leader two weeks ago, to become the next prime minister. Gowda's coalition won a total of 180 seats, still well short of a majority.
Congress Party leaders now say they'll support the United Front "in the interests of secularism and the country's unity." But they warned Monday they would topple a United Front government if it reversed the economic reforms started in 1991.
The United Front, a conglomerate of nearly 12 regional and national parties, represents the interests of some of India's lowest castes. Its nucleus is the Janata Dal, which won only 43 seats in the election.
Investors are worried about the future of reforms under a United Front government. Gowda said he has welcomed foreign investment, although he hasn't claimed to be an enthusiastic economic reformer. "I will not describe myself as an economic reformer, I am just a peasant," he said recently.
The BJP has attacked the United Front on the grounds that it's so fractious it will fall apart long before the end of its five-year term.
Front leaders who are determined to see the BJP government toppled said the Hindu nationalists had no right to form a government after securing only 23 percent of the national vote.
(Distributed by Scripps Howard News Service.)