Now that Slobodan Milosevic has been bumped from power in Yugoslavia, what should the West do about him?
Milosevic, a tyrant who caused four wars and destroyed his nation's economy, is an indicted war criminal. He ought to be handed over to The Hague for proper punishment. Unfortunately, the answer is not as simple as that.
Vojislav Kostunica, the man who defeated Milosevic in recent elections and was swept to power by an incredible and remarkably peaceful popular uprising, cannot afford politically to have the former dictator arrested and turned over. Kostunica gained the trust of the people in part by his skepticism of the West and his public denunciations of The Hague. This was necessary because many Serbs still are reeling from the damage caused by NATO bombing raids last year. Those raids, aimed at weakening Milosevic, incited nationalistic feelings even among Milosevic's enemies.
At this delicate point in Yugoslavia's transition, the West cannot afford to agitate the situation by making demands that would stir more feelings of nationalism. However, if the West completely ignores the need to bring Milosevic to an international tribunal, it risks other problems, as well.
As Christopher Walker, an analyst specializing in European affairs, noted in a recent Christian Science Monitor essay, Croatians may react badly to any indications that the West will let Milosevic off the hook. That is because the West forced Croatia to take certain steps before it could be included back into the fellowship of European states. Even though many of Croatia's leaders escaped justice, some Croatians may take a quick acceptance of Yugoslavia as unfair. Then, too, the West must be concerned about The Hague's credibility, which would be weakened if it ignored Milosevic.
Added to all these delicate factors is the Kosovo situation, which has suddenly become much more complicated. Many Kosovo Albanians were sorry to see Milosevic go, if only because his absence makes their demands for an independent nation less convincing.
Out of this complicated mess, one thing ought to override all other considerations: Kostunica appears to be a fair-minded leader intent on instituting a multiparty democracy and on allowing Yugoslavia to rebuild itself. The fact that he has resisted temptations to exact revenge on Milosevic is commendable. It certainly runs counter to the way Milosevic ran things. The United States shouldn't do anything right now that would threaten his tenuous hold on power. Kostunica has tentatively called for elections in December, which, if nationalist feelings are kept at bay, could rid Serbia's parliament of many of Milosevic's supporters.
Many experts believe it is unlikely Milosevic will escape justice even if he remains in Serbia. In any event, the West has much more to gain at this point by calmly allowing Kostunica to organize a peaceful government than by demanding he hand over the former dictator. There will be time for that later.