Here we go again. The Jazz are predictable; their bones ache; they're old.
Of course, so are the aforementioned statements.But are they too old to win a championship?
You couldn't blame the Jazz for being a bit smug. A half-dozen years ago they were answering the same question. Now they're a team of Baby Boomers -- Baby Boomers! -- who only this week logged their third Midwest Division championship in four years.
"I keep waiting for them to get old and go away," said Portland coach Mike Dunleavy, "but they just won't go away."
How old are the Jazz? Old enough they can remember when the Jazz played in New Orleans and the Kings in Kansas City. Old enough that Karl Malone has kids the same age as Indiana's Jonathan Bender.
Nevertheless, as Jerry Sloan allows, "We know those guys have lost a step. We're not trying to hide anything. But we never were the sort of team that out-jumped the other guys. There's no accounting for smartness and how you play the game."
So we're back to the same old (there's that word again) argument. Middle age is upon them, and they're still struggling for that elusive championship. Nobody is expecting the Jazz to win a championship this year. More likely they will go down in history as tireless workers who never got the rings they deserved.
Still, what if someone beat the Lakers in the early rounds? What if the Jazz's relentless execution carried them past younger, more gifted teams like Portland, Minnesota or Sacramento? What if Jeff Hornacek had one more batch of those playground shots left in his back pocket?
This is what: The Jazz would be the oldest team in history to win a title.
Not Wilt Chamberlain's 1972 Lakers. Not Bill Russell's '69 Celtics. And not Kareem-Magic-Worthy Lakers of 1988. They would be the Don Quixotes of NBA basketball history, aging noblemen, defeating what NBA Commissioner David Stern once called "the inexorable march of Time."
Ah, yes. Time. That old thief. Basketball in particular is at the mercy of Time, a game that flourishes on quickness and leaping. For a team of thirtysomething players, Time can expose them like age spots in direct sunlight. Truth is, it does look silly some nights when Hornacek and his gimpy knee get nailed to the floor by Kobe Bryant. Stockton has never claimed to be able to handle Gary Payton alone.
But the Jazz seem to have at least delayed Time's victory. The starting lineup averages 35 years. Olden Polynice is 35, Malone 36, Hornacek 37 (May 3), Stockton 38. Bryon Russell is the baby of the group, a tender 29. They are prime age for stockbrokers and bankers, but well over the hill in basketball years.
Ironically, the oldest team ever to win a championship is none other than the Jazz's old nemesis, the Chicago Bulls. The 1997-98 Bulls, who broke the Jazz's hearts in the NBA Finals, averaged 33.4 years per starter. The lineup included Michael Jordan (35), Scottie Pippen (32), Luc Longley (29), Ron Harper (34) and Dennis Rodman (37).
That the Jazz are still producing good numbers doesn't mean they are alone in the fight against Time. The first-place Pacers' current starting lineup (Dale Davis, Jalen Rose, Rik Smits, Mark Jackson, Reggie Miller) averages 32 years. If you toss in 36-year-old former starter Chris Mullin, in place of the 27-year-old Jalen Rose, the team averages a ripe old 33.8. But the Pacers, too, have yet to win a title.
A number of individual players continue to thrive into their mid-30s. San Antonio's David Robinson remains an imposing force at 34. New York's Patrick Ewing is 37, Portland's Pippen, Arvydas Sabonis and Detlef Schrempf are 34, 34 and 37, respectively. Miami's Dan Majerle is 34. San Antonio has its share of senior citizens, including Mario Elie (36), Avery Johnson (35) and Jerome Kersey (37).
All of those players continue to compete at a respectable or higher level.
Likewise, a handful of history's greats continued to play well into middle age. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar still averaged 22 points, 7.9 rebounds and shot nearly 60 percent in 1984-85, at age 38. The year he turned 36 -- same age as Malone -- he averaged 21.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and shot 59 percent. Chamberlain was way down in scoring at age 36 (13.2 points, compared to 50.4 points in 1961-62), but his 18.6 rebounds were still best in the league.
Larry Bird averaged 20.2 points and 9.6 rebounds when he was 36. Clyde Drexler was 35 when he averaged 18.4 points. Russell collected a prodigious average of 19.3 rebounds in his final season, at age 35.
While Malone's statistics are still at an impressive level, other stars weren't as lucky in their later years. At 34, Oscar Robertson was still a threat, scoring 15.5 points and recording in 7.5 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game, but that was well off the year he averaged a triple-double for the entire season (30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4) at age 23.
Scoring machine Rick Barry, at 36, had dropped off to 12 points a game at the end. Elgin Baylor was down to 11.8 points by the time he was 37, well off his high average of 38.3.
Few if any were better than Stockton and Malone at the same ages. At week's start, Malone was fourth in scoring (25.8), 11th in rebounding (9.6) and seventh in field goal percentage (.510). Despite getting fewer minutes than ever, he was still 32nd in the league in minutes played (36.3).
Stockton ranked sixth in assists (8.6), 17th in field goal percentage (.498), 14th in free throw percentage (.860) and 10th in steals (1.74). Hornacek was second in 3-point percentage (.474) and first in free throw percentage (.948), which would tie him with Mark Price for the third-best single-season percentage in history.
In 48-minute projections, Malone ranked second in scoring (34.1), while Stockton was second in assists (13.8) and eighth in steals (2.8).
Still, the odds don't favor a team full of oldies but goodies winning a title. The 1969 NBA champion Celtics, led by the 35-year-old Russell, averaged 32.4 years per starter, 2 1/2 years per player younger than the Jazz. The '72 Lakers (Goodrich, West, McMillian, Chamberlain, Hairston) were 30.2 years per man.
Some championship teams just seem older in memory. For instance, the '73 Knicks, that included a future presidential candidate, weren't all that old. Bill Bradley was just 29, Dave DeBusschere 32, Jerry Lucas 33. That team averaged an even 30 years per starter.
The '88 Lakers, led by Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, were just 30.6 years per player. Kurt Rambis, Abdul-Jabbar and Byron Scott went on to play for years after but weren't all that old when they were winning titles.
Same for the '83 Sixers, whose oldest player was Julius Erving, at 33. Other than that, the rest of the starters were in their 20s.
So go ahead and plan on the young, athletic Lakers winning the title. The Jazz would need to make NBA and medical history to change that.
But don't count them completely out. As Charles Schultz said: "Just remember, once you're over the hill you begin to pick up speed."