GOP Gov. Mike Leavitt holds a comfortable lead over former Democratic Congressman Bill Orton in this year's governor's race, a new Deseret News/KSL-TV poll shows.
But Orton has closed the gap that existed in a December survey by pollster Dan Jones & Associates. In the new poll, Jones found Leavitt with a 27 percentage point lead. In December it was a 36 percentage point lead over Orton.
And while Leavitt is above 50 percent support in the new survey, an important number for an incumbent, his lead over this year's Democratic challenger is not as large as poll numbers in 1996, the last year Leavitt faced re-election.
Orton promises a lively campaign against Leavitt, who seeks a third four-year term. But Orton says he won't actively campaign until after Labor Day this September.
The governor is also challenged within his party by three Republicans: Glen Davis, Timothy Lawson and Steve Stromness.
But Jones found that few people know or support those challengers at this point. In a matchup among the four Republicans, Leavitt has 53 percent support among all voters; Davis, Lawson and Stromness each get 1 percent support. Forty percent of those polled said they didn't know how they wold vote if there were a Republican primary election today.
Among those who said they are Republicans, Leavitt's dominance of his three GOP challengers is greater, Jones found. Sixty-seven percent of Republicans support him. Davis and Lawson get 1 percent each of Republicans' votes; Stromness gets 2 percent.
Jones, who has polled Utah races for 30 years, said there is dissatisfaction with Leavitt among some GOP state delegates.
The governor has been meeting with delegates in small groups for several weeks. And Deseret News reporters have attended some of those gatherings. While the meetings have been polite, Leavitt has been grilled on why he didn't veto a controversial bill passed by the 2000 Legislature that allows for the dismantling of a utility consumer advocate board and other issues.
Jones said that between them, Leavitt's three challengers could get 10 percent or more of the delegate vote in the May 6 convention. "And in years gone by, that could prove an embarrassment" for Leavitt, whose job performance/popularity ratings have been sky-high, Jones said.
But Republicans have lowered the nomination standard this year to 60 percent of the delegate vote. And it's unlikely the governor will be denied that percentage and have to face a primary election June 27.
In December, Leavitt weathered a serious intraparty challenge from House Speaker Marty Stephens, R-Farr West. Stephens polled the old delegates (new delegates were elected in March party mass meetings) and said he found considerable disenchantment with the governor.
Ultimately, Stephens concluded that he couldn't beat Leavitt in the May 6 GOP state convention.
And with Leavitt having more than $1 million in his campaign account, high popularity ratings and almost 100 percent name identification in the state, Stephens concluded he couldn't beat him in a primary election, either.
So Stephens didn't get in the race this year, opting instead to run again for his state House seat and seek another term as speaker.
Orton was a last-minute addition for the Democrats.
Their original candidate failed to realize the Utah Constitution requires a five-year residency in the state to run for governor. When he found that out as he attempted to file for the office in March, Democratic leaders were red-faced.
Last summer Orton had considered the governor's race but decided against it.
But, Orton said, after LDS Church President Gordon B. Hinckley, during a talk before the National Press Club, encouraged church members to be active in politics and civic affairs and that active Mormons could be good Democrats as well, he reconsidered running against Leavitt.
Orton has no full-time staff now and little money. He's challenged Leavitt to a series of debates in each county seat and says if the governor agrees, there's no need for "million dollar TV buys and expensive campaigns."
Jones found that Leavitt gets 17 percent of the Democratic vote, while Orton, who was a conservative Democrat during his three terms in the U.S. House, gets 11 percent of the Republican vote.
Leavitt cleans up in the independent vote, however, leading Orton 50-28 percent there.
Utah is about 40 percent Republican, 20 percent Democratic, 25 percent independent, with the balance of Utahns refusing to pick an affiliation or naming another political party, Jones found in his latest survey.
KSL TV will air a story based on this poll tonight at 10 p.m.
You can reach Bob Bernick Jr. by e-mail at bbjr@desnews.com