Will he or won't he? Should he or shouldn't he?
That's almost all anybody prowling the halls of the state Capitol was talking about Tuesday, as the Legislature took yet another break while the Democrats, including President Clinton, anointed a candidate for the U.S. Senate.Never mind that it's the first time a first lady has run for office. The president apparently made a last-minute decision to appear with his wife as a way of getting somebody to pay more than passing attention to the state party convention here. Even the guys tacking up bunting and setting up chairs Tuesday at the Pepsi Arena were talking about Rudy Giuliani.
Whatever the workers thought (most said he won't but he should), nobody knows for sure whether Giuliani will. But top Republican power brokers were preparing for the increasing possibility that Giuliani won't be their candidate. The reality is they may be -- and may always have been -- better off without him.
I don't say this now because Giuliani may have mortally wounded himself, with his inexplicably insensitive handling of the Patrick Dorismond shooting and his own marital mayhem. Or that, if he can square all this with voters, they will somehow find his prostate cancer enough of a concern to turn away from him.
I've said in the past that while Giuliani might be a strong enough candidate to beat Hillary Clinton, he wasn't necessarily the party's strongest or, more accurately, safest. The problem with Giuliani is that his abrasive New York style, as well as his relatively liberal policies on many hot-button issues, might not play well with upstate conservatives essential for a Republican to win statewide. And that his volatile personality always meant he could say or do something at any time that could make himself more of an issue, a losing one, than what he'd done to revive the city.
Since Hillary Clinton indicated she was serious about running, Republicans were always better off with a candidate who could keep the focus entirely on her -- a candidate who could appeal to conservatives without offending moderates or angering liberals, particularly minorities, as Giuliani has.
They were always better off with a guy such as Rep. Rick Lazio, R-N.Y. Gov. George Pataki has told Lazio that if Giuliani quits, he's their guy. So has ex-Sen. Al D'Amato. So have the party's two most influential county leaders, Joe Mondello and Tony Apollaro.
The last holdout was state party Chairman Bill Powers, whom Lazio angered recently by demanding his support if Giuliani dropped out. Lazio believed his willingness to suspend his campaign against the mayor when the governor and others asked him last year was in the interests of party unity.
Party leaders see in Lazio a clean-cut, well-spoken candidate who can raise money and has done well with women and independent swing voters in his suburban district. They believe that Lazio has a strong chance to secure the Conservative Party line, despite being pro-choice and a moderate on other social issues, and a competitive shot at the Independence Party endorsement.
The leaders see a guy who, as Pataki did against Mario Cuomo six years ago, can make his opponent the issue by simply saying, "I'm not her." Perhaps as important to them, however, is the less appealing fact that Lazio did do what he was told last year and probably would continue to do so during the campaign. Unlike Giuliani, he would be controllable and predictable.
Unfortunately, that's why Rep. Pete King, R-N.Y., the only other Republican still pushing himself forward, never had a chance. Where Lazio would chafe at Newt Gingrich behind the scenes but fall in line to preserve his perks, for instance, King had the guts to go after the speaker in public. King also broke with his party and voted not to impeach Clinton. He also backed John McCain against the machine's effort to have George W. Bush the only candidate on the New York primary ballot. Pataki and the other leaders will never forget or forgive, much less reward him for that.
If the leaders are lucky, Giuliani will tell them he is a no go. For reasons better and worse, Lazio is still their best bet.