There's a reason that movie-industry analysts are just that — analysts — and not Hollywood producers.
Not that these people are bad at their jobs. Quite the opposite, really. But when they're wrong with their predictions, they're pretty far off.
For example, take the $100 million-budgeted Mel Gibson-in-the-Revolutionary-War picture "The Patriot." Coming into the summer, forecasters expected this one to be an easy $200 million-maker. However, at this writing, the film still hadn't hit the $100 million mark.
Don't feel too bad, guys. Nearly everyone was expecting "The Patriot" to be one of the year's biggest smashes.
After home-video sales and European theatrical markets, it will probably still make its money back, but it still has to be considered at least something of a box-office disappointment. And studio heads are left scratching their hands, wondering why it didn't do better.
So with apologies to David Letterman and his writers, I present to you my Top 10 List of Reasons "The Patriot" Tanked:
10. The name "The Patriot" conjured up too many images of football in New England. Brrr!
9. The only person Americans want to watch for three hours during the summer is Michael Jordan.
8. Prospective audiences were saving their energy to do their own flag-waving.
7. Not enough Danny Glover.
6. Moviegoers were turned off by the original title: "Aussie Guy Bashes the Brits Again."
5. People were too busy camping out in line for the next "Star Wars" prequel.
4. The sight of men with wigs and ruffles reminded audiences of "To Wong Foo, Thanks For Everything, Julie Newmar."
3. Not enough Joe Pesci.
2. Disappointed Mel Gibson fans were holding out for that long-awaited "Air America" sequel.
And the No. 1 reason "The Patriot" tanked (drumroll please):
1. Not enough kilts!
YEP, THEY'RE NUTS!
One of the requests I get most from readers is an explanation for how the Motion Picture Association of America's movie-rating system works. Folks, I wish I could tell you. I really do.
But the best I can say is this: The MPAA has a Classification and Ratings Administration board that is supposed to assign letter ratings to films (G, PG, PG-13, R and NC-17) based on content, which includes the amount of profanity, sex, violence and nudity they contain, and in what context certain of those are portrayed.
However, there are no real black-and-white guidelines for CARA board members to follow except that certain profanities are supposed to automatically earn a film an R, as will explicit nudity and extremely graphic sex scenes (or non-simulated ones, for that matter) are supposed to earn an NC-17.
Yes, that's a lot of "supposed to's." But the way the system currently works, there are a lot of films slipping through the cracks.
Take, for example, a film like "Nutty Professor II: The Klumps," which features nearly as many sex jokes as "American Pie," including specific references to sex acts. Yet it received a PG-13, meaning that teens and younger moviegoers can get in to see it without a parent — who might be able to explain how inappropriate the humor is.
The real sore thumb sticking out right now, though, has to be "Scary Movie," the horror-comedy that lowers the crudeness bar to horrifying depths. It's inconceivable that this film was submitted to the MPAA and received an R without making any cuts. This is clearly NC-17 material, and the MPAA has to know it.
In fact, all this appalling error of judgment does is lend credence to complaints from filmmakers Trey Parker and Matt Stone. Their "South Park: Bigger, Longer & Uncut" movie came under severe scrutiny by the MPAA (as well as its leader, Jack Valenti), and the two were forced to make edits to receive an R.
But as foul-mouthed and crude as their film was, it certainly pales in comparison to some of the gags in "Scary Movie."
OK, I guess that an argument could be made that the MPAA may have decided to back off a bit after receiving tremendous scrutiny for the "South Park" flap. But that would be a lame reason for the organization to loosen its standards.
So just remember, you can't always trust these ratings — especially these days.
QUOTE OF THE WEEK: "I love baths and I still take them, but I have to be honest, I don't enjoy them in the same way I used to. I'm not nervous, it's just not quite the same." — "What Lies Beneath" star Michelle Pfeiffer, talking with the TV Guide online Web site about her long hours in the tub for that film.
E-MAIL: jeff@desnews.com