WASHINGTON — Investors have shown little inclination to blame Republicans for Wall Street's problems over the past few months, polls suggest, complicating a Democratic attempt to make the economy a rallying cry in their final push to the elections.
"The question of how Bush administration policies affect investors hasn't become an issue in this election," said Thomas Riehle, president of Ipsos-Reid U.S. Public Affairs, which conducts a tracking poll for the Cook Political Report. "As the market went up and down, we didn't see the trendline for investors diverging from other voters. They've remained a Republican-leaning group."
Polls suggest the economy as an issue slightly favors Democrats, while national security and the war on terrorism strongly favor Republicans. Democrats say the economy is linked to a whole group of issues that favor them, from Social Security to prescription drugs.
Not only have Democrats looking for a solid boost from the topsy-turvy fortunes of Wall Street not gotten it, but the stock market has staged a rally over the past week.
Investor voters have tended to favor Republicans in the congressional vote as tracked by the Ipsos-Reid poll over the last six months, by 7-10 percentage points. Voters who are not investors tended to favor Democrats by 5-13 points.
"You're looking at a group that's less Democratic," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who said investor voters are not a clear-cut voter group. "The people who own stock are likely to be the richer 50 or 60 percent."
In a recent Ipsos-Reid poll, 47 percent of investors described themselves as Republicans, while 41 percent said they were Democrats and 11 percent said they were independent.
Bush has been talking increasingly about the economy as well as national security as he campaigns. A week ago in Michigan he said, "Till I'm satisfied that people can find work, I'm going to stay on the economy."
"We welcome the president to go out for two weeks on the campaign trail and talk about the economy," said Democratic national chairman Terry McAuliffe.
White House spokeswoman Claire Buchan said the president welcomes a debate with Democrats on the subject.
"The president has been talking about the economy since before he took office. We're pleased the Democrats now want to focus on it," she said.
The Democrats say they will spend hundreds of thousands of dollars between Monday and the election on two 30-second TV ads that focus on the nation's economic problems. They also plan to distribute the ads to the House and Senate campaign committees as well as to state parties to use however they wish. They plan to introduce two more in the next few days.
In one of the ads, a young husband is getting ready for work with his wife in the background.
She asks him: "So, first day of the new job. Ready for the big adventure?" And he responds: "Ready as I'll ever be."
The narrator then talks about "$175 billion in savings gone, over 2 million jobs lost. Many seniors starting over, looking for work."
The ad, done by the firm Penczner Burton, cuts to an older man preparing for work, with his wife in the background. "So, first day of the new job. Ready for the big adventure?" she asks him, and he shrugs and replies: "Ready as I'll ever be."
Six of 10 registered voters are investors, according to Ipsos-Reid.
Republican pollster Matthew Dowd wrote a memo to Republican leaders in August noting the trends that investors have consistently leaned Republican in the congressional vote, despite the market's problems.
A key reason Democrats haven't been able to build support on the economy is that "they haven't offered a clearly defined economic agenda as a companion to their attacks," Dowd wrote.
When a Newsweek poll released this month asked whether Democrats in Washington were offering a clear-cut alternative to the Bush agenda, one-third said yes, half said no and one in five didn't know. And investors' confidence about the economy's health has dropped over the last year, according to Ipsos-Reid.
"Even in a summer when investors felt more uncertain about the economy than noninvestors," said Riehle, "their vote intentions hardly budged."