SIOUX FALLS, S.D. — The miles of snow-dusted farms and ranches of South Dakota seem an unlikely epicenter for the struggle to control the Senate. Yet the race between the Democratic incumbent, Tim Johnson, and his Republican challenger, Rep. John Thune, has emerged as perhaps the most pivotal race in the 2002 Senate elections.
"This is regarded rightly or not as possibly the most contested Senate campaign in America," Johnson, 55, acknowledged this week to an audience of mostly elderly farmers in the tiny town of Milbank. "It may well be."
This race could determine whether the Democrats keep their tenuous hold on Senate power, whether home state Sen. Tom Daschle remains majority leader and whether President Bush's agenda moves forward.
In its way, the South Dakota face-off feels like a tale of two races.
The one that is being played out here often revolves around water projects and federal grants and which candidate did more for South Dakota in drafting farm legislation.
The other race is a proxy battle between Daschle and President Bush, which has the national parties and their ideological allies pouring money, advertising and operatives into the state.
Bush, who won South Dakota by 22 points in 2000, helped persuade Thune to run for the Senate instead of for governor. Johnson is Daschle's protege, and if he loses, the race could strip Daschle of the Democrats' one-seat Senate majority, depending on the outcome of other contests.
The national party committees have already run an exchange of political commercials, as if it were October. And by some predictions as much as $14 million could be spent in this race, making it perhaps the most expensive in the nation per capita, because South Dakota has only about 750,000 residents.
Yet for all the out-of-state interest, this race has a very local feel. Johnson is trying to turn the race into a referendum on who can deliver the most for South Dakota. Thanks to Daschle, he snagged a coveted seat last year on the powerful Appropriations Committee, with its power over federal spending and pork-barrel projects.
So at stop after stop Johnson highlights federal grants that he says he brought home — nearly $1 million to help Milbank keep its hospital open or more than $1 million for research at South Dakota State University.
Thune's campaign commercials emphasize cutting taxes and Thune's support for a strong military, including a missile defense system and the B-2 bomber. They say Thune represents South Dakota values, suggesting that Johnson does not.