Last fall, sales of DVD players overtook VCR sales for the first time ever — a trend that's likely to continue. It's just another sign that "the digital transition is reaching warp speed."
Those words belong to Jim Barry, spokesman for the Consumer Electronics Association, who last week was in Salt Lake City showing off some of the hot new products available and talking about the future of the industry, which enjoyed $93 billion in consumer electronics sales last year, off only 2 percent from the previous year despite a rocky economy.
He sees clear signs of two trends: digital and wireless. And digital wireless is really sizzling.
Another indication of the digital transition, he said, is that more than half of the big-screen TVs sold last year — 1.4 million — were digital.
That doesn't mean people are going to throw away their non-digital products. They still work, and they're a lot cheaper than their newer, higher-tech cousins. That still counts for a lot with consumers.
"VCRs are not going away," Barry said. "For one thing, people still have videos. My theory is that very few things become obsolete, though they do get harder to find, like black-and-white film."
VCR sales peaked with 23 million units sold in 2000. The number dropped 30 percent, a trend that's expected to continue. This year, experts predict only 12 million VCR units will be sold, while the number of DVD players sold will reach at least 16 million this year.
But new recordable DVDs are "not really competition to the VCR yet," Barry said, "because there's still a huge price difference." The recordable units cost $500 to $1,000. You can get a VCR for under $100. And DVD players are readily available for under $150.
Digital satellite, digital cameras, even digitally broadcast TV programming are "starting to make inroads," Barry said. About one-fourth of television broadcasters now send programs out digitally.
As for wireless, it's about where the Internet was a few years ago, he said. "It's still the World Wide Wait, with disconnects, slow speeds, etc." But it's changing, and technology is improving. A third generation of wireless technology, called 3G, "is definitely coming."
3G is a radio communications technology to create a "bit pipe" for providing mobile access to Internet-based services, according to the 3G Newsroom. Most current digital phones use the second-generation technology. 3G wireless will combine a mobile phone, laptop PC and TV at speeds of 144 kb to 2 mb per second.
Barry likens wireless' spread to that of the fax machine, which has been around since the late 1930s. Once it became somewhat popular and people saw its value, it moved from one in a building to one or more on every floor. Now, it's in every home office, too.
Other burgeoning wireless categories include networking, where short-distance wireless (up to about 30 feet) relies on Blue Tooth technology and which theoretically can reach up to 300 feet using Wi-Fi (formerly called 80211, it stands for wireless fidelity).
Still, when Barry reaches into his shoulder bag to exhibit some of the coolest new products, he pulls out some items that are admittedly "quirky," like a windup charger and an environmentally sensitive solar charger. This year, he wasn't packing around one of the tiny portable DVD players he's fond of; most people have seen them. Instead, he pulled out these:
The Panasonic SVAV 10 SD A/V recorder, "the coolest thing," is a smaller-than-your-hand combo with a video player, voice recorder, MP3 player and still camera (480 X 620). Retailing around $399, this four-in-one uses tiny SD memory cards and has an optional card reader and printer that can be purchased as accessories. It weighs a mere 3.46 ounces without its battery and memory card, has a built-in flash and a 2-inch LCD.
The Motorola V60 cell phone weighs in at 4.3 ounces and offers four hours of talk time and 120 hours standby time before it has to be recharged. It has an external LCD and analog roaming, voice recognition capability and caller ID built in. It doesn't, however, offer wireless Web access. Because the phone is provided through a carrier, cost varies. With it, Barry showed off a small Plantronics wireless hands-free headset that uses Blue Tooth technology.
Motient's MobileModem for Palm V series personal digital assistants sells for about $170. It makes available always-on wireless e-mail access directly to the PDA. It "talks" to the Motient network and will "wake up" the Palm V when there's an incoming message. It has a SmartSync cable that recharges both the modem and the PDA and syncs the Palm to a desktop PC. But it only adds 5.5 ounces to the Palm device.
iSun is a solar panel recharger for handheld devices, manufactured by ICP Global. It comes with seven different plugs that fit most of the popular electronics, including Discman, MP3 player, GPS, Walkman and cell phone technology. It converts sunlight into an electrical current. And for added power, you can connect multiple iSuns together. Retails around $75 each.
FreePlay, the company that brought the world the windup radio, has come up with a windup battery charger for Motorola phones that could be just the ticket. It takes just 45 seconds of cranking to generate enough power for five or six minutes of cell phone life. The charger is about the same size as a mobile phone, and plans are to make versions for other phone brands. Retail is about $75.
The AudioVox Maestro PDA can be connected to the company's CDM-9100 cell phone for really portable, wireless capability. The cost to buy both devices and team them up is about $600. Maestro is small and has Secure Digital and CompactFlash expansion slots, as well as 32MB of RAM.
E-mail: lois@desnews.com