WASHINGTON — The FBI's new cadre of intelligence analysts has developed a portrait of al-Qaida in which midlevel members are planning attacks as the terrorist group's more notorious leaders hide from the U.S. military, U.S. officials say.
A decentralized network of al-Qaida operatives may prove to be an even greater threat to the United States because they are more difficult to locate and may change methods, officials said.
"What we are seeing is the midlevel operatives are in the position to carry out attacks against Americans," a senior law enforcement official said. "We are coming up with a list of these people and together with the CIA are making them a high priority."
Another senior U.S. official added, "The analysis indicates that the senior members are more concerned with not being killed or captured and the gravity for planning activity has gone down" the chain of command.
Both officials spoke to The Associated Press only on condition of anonymity.
The new group of analysts, several of whom have worked for the CIA, are interpreting raw intelligence in a way new to the FBI, by proactively focusing on disrupting terrorists' plans even before agents meet the legal standards for arrests and prosecutions.
"You need to keep your analysts separate so that they can continue to mine information and continue to give you the global picture," said Pat Damuro, the FBI's assistant director for counterterrorism, who is overseeing the analysis effort.
The new analysts are not focused on specific cases, but rather "looking over the horizon" for emerging threats and trends, Damuro said.
Though it has existed only two months, the new analysis unit already has made its mark. It was responsible for three recent warnings sent by the FBI about possible terrorist plans, law enforcement officials said.
One warning went to scuba diving schools, advising owners to be wary of suspicious people buying large amounts of equipment and asking for instruction that might be useful in a terror attack.
In June, the analysts provided FBI officials with guidance that led to warnings to Jewish schools and synagogues about a possible attack scenario. Seaports also were warned that al-Qaida members might attempt to hide in incoming cargo.
Combining foreign and domestic intelligence with information from al-Qaida members in custody at the U.S. naval base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, the new analysts are helping FBI field offices and foreign police identify midlevel al-Qaida operatives and apprehend them before they can carry out attacks.
Officials this week stopped an American man in Denver whom they are holding as a material witness, meaning they think he may have important information. Officials believe he may have taken computer equipment to a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan.
The analyst team has been aided by a handful of senior CIA managers and 25 seasoned CIA analysts who have moved to the FBI to assist the early effort. The FBI already has about 100 recruits of its own in training.
When it is all done, the FBI hopes to have a team of 200 analysts looking for trends and patterns in terrorism, officials said.
"What we have here is a total reorganization of the counterterrorism program, tripling in size the counterterrorism division and increasing operational ability in the field," Damuro said. "This will help us to put the puzzle pieces together and give us other areas we need to target."
Those who watch the agency said the shift toward intelligence assessment could essentially create a new FBI.
"The agency has never had the ability to assess sophisticated intelligence in the way that the CIA can," said Donald Terrel, a former agent and a researcher at George Washington University. "The FBI historically has been kept from collecting and assessing information for fear that it would abuse the power. The CIA has also been reluctant to share information out of fear that it would become public in a court case. Now the FBI's hands are no longer tied."