While national pundits suggest the economy is finally turning around, a Utah economist isn't so sure.
The nation's unemployment rate held steady at 6.1 percent in September as businesses added to payrolls for the first time in eight months. Meanwhile, Utah's jobless rate climbed slightly to 5.1 percent last month from August's revised 5 percent.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday that a survey of U.S. companies showed a net increase of 57,000 jobs last month in wide-ranging industries, and there was new hope for recovery in the slumping manufacturing sector. Some 29,000 factory jobs were lost, but that was considerably fewer than in previous months. And job losses in August, initially reported at 93,000, were sharply revised to 41,000.
"This is potentially the key turning point," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. "It is really taking on the tone of a labor market that is finally getting over the hump. Indeed, this is what we need to create the confidence in both the household sector and the business sector that this recovery is real."
Not so fast, said Mark Knold, senior economist for the Utah Department of Workforce Services.
"It's possible that this is the turning point, but I wouldn't even venture to go out on a limb to say that," Knold said. "Not with one month of growth.
What (other analysts) are excited about is that we've had four or five months where they've predicted growth and it hasn't happened.
"But to jump and say this is it, because of one month of employment growth, could very well be premature."
National job growth needs to be consistently above 100,000 a month for confidence in a rebound, said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Economy.com.
"The job market is stabilizing," Zandi said of Friday's report. "But it also shows the market is far from healthy. It's simply flat. It's not eroding. It's a step in the right direction, but it's not enough."
In Utah's monthly jobs report, Knold wrote that several key employment sectors must show improvement. Among them are professional and business services, which declined 0.5 percent in September. That's an improvement over recent months, but Knold wrote, "This area is filled with high-wage, knowledge-based jobs that are the lead growth engine in the U.S. economy. . . . The trend (toward growth) is encouraging, but it has to continue to pick up speed."
Ditto the information sector, Knold said. Year-over employment is down 0.3 percent, which is also better than the state has reported in the past two years. But, Knold stated, "the information sector is another that has to stop sliding and start producing."
Only three of the 11 categories showed job gains, according to the state report. The financial activities sector added 1,400 jobs; education and health added 3,000 jobs; and government gained 1,000 workers in September.
In all, about 62,000 Utahns were unemployed last month, compared to 72,700 last September.
In Friday's national reports, manufacturing lost jobs for the 37th straight month — a record — although the pace of the hemorrhaging slowed.
Construction employment was up for the month, with 14,000 new jobs. That sector has added jobs for seven straight months.
In the services sector, professional and business services added 66,000 new jobs last month, with half of the gain occurring in temporary employment services. Gains also were found in health care and social assistance; transportation and warehousing; and financial services.
E-mail: jnii@desnews.com