The U.S. Census Bureau confirms what most of us know intuitively — Utah is experiencing some growing pains.
The Beehive State is the nation's seventh-fastest-growing state, a phenomenon attributed to a high birthrate and influx of immigrants. Mostly, though, the population increase is homegrown, with a record 50,000 births in the state in 2004.
Policy wonks have been tracking these trends for years. But changes in tax policy have lagged woefully behind. How will Utah, which already has the lowest per-pupil expenditures in the nation, meet the needs of a growing and much more diverse public school population?
Gov. Olene Walker's tax-reform recommendations home in on this very issue. Experts who prepared the report believe Utah is on a collision course because of the volatile nature of the taxes that support the public school system. As Utah's public school population mushrooms, the weakness of the tax base will become increasingly evident. Walker, in her tax reform presentation, said candidly, "Down the road there is a crisis awaiting if something isn't done."
Those who are familiar with Walker know that she is not prone to "Chicken Little" prognostications. The advisers who prepared Walker's tax recommendations caution that Utah will face a $200 million shortfall within a decade if nothing is done to reform the state's tax structure. The projected shortfall would come just as 145,000 additional students enter Utah's public school system.
If the state is serious about providing its children with a quality education that prepares them for post-secondary education or the work force, the "business as usual" approach to the state's tax policy cannot continue. Specifically, it is time to abandon the thinking that economic growth alone will meet the needs of the state's education system.
As Gov.-elect Jon Huntsman Jr. prepares to take the reins of the state and the 2005 Legislature convenes, mapping out a strategy to address the needs of Utah's expanding school population must be a front-burner issue. If nothing else, Walker's recommendations let the tax genie out of the bottle. As politically unpopular as tax reform can be, good stewards of Utah government cannot overlook the specter of revenue shortfalls in the hundreds of millions of dollars.