It's hardly a surprise that, according to the latest poll numbers, Republican Sen. Bob Bennett is ahead of his chief Democratic rival, former Utah Attorney General Paul Van Dam.
Republican incumbents are, after all, traditionally tough to beat in Utah. Bennett, however, is proving especially powerful with a whopping 47-point lead over Van Dam, according to a Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV poll.
"Obviously, I'm very pleased," the two-term senator said upon hearing the results. "This indicates a very gratifying level of approval for what I'm doing."
Van Dam said he isn't discouraged by the results.
"We just know we have a lot of work to do between now and the election. The numbers are the numbers, and we'll deal with them," he said. "At least we have a starting point, although it's certainly way down."
According to the survey by Dan Jones & Associates, Bennett had the support of 63 percent of Utahns polled, compared to just 16 percent for Van Dam. The other Democrat in the race, Cody Judy, had 2 percent, as did Constitution Party candidate Gary Van Horn. No respondents backed Joe Labonte of the Personal Choice Party.
Sixteen percent of respondents said they didn't know yet whom they would vote for, and the undecided voters could be a ray of hope for Van Dam. Bennett said undecided voters make incumbents nervous because "you expect people to have made up their minds."
The poll of 612 Utah residents was taken March 17-20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
It's still early in the campaign, and voters are focused on the hotly contested race for governor. Pollster Dan Jones said that's causing the Senate race to be more low-profile than normal.
Plus, Bennett has no primary and Van Dam's only challenge from within the Democratic party is coming from a candidate, Judy, who served prison time for charges related to threatening a leader of the LDS Church during a Brigham Young University devotional.
All that means voters won't be paying too much attention to the Senate race until closer to the November election. Jones said that's plenty of time for Van Dam to at least narrow the gap between himself and Bennett.
"People in Utah will sometimes want a change," Jones said. "Is this the year? Right now, Sen. Bennett certainly has a comfortable lead. Anytime there's an election, it's not over" this early.
Van Dam said he believes once people realize he's running, he'll do better in the polls. "We've really done no publicity at this point," he said, although the campaign will start advertising on radio in a few weeks.
The former attorney general is one of only two Democrats to win a statewide election in Utah since former Gov. Scott Matheson left office in 1984. Van Dam, who also served as Salt Lake County attorney, came from behind to beat Republican Attorney General David Wilkinson in 1988.
"I don't know if I was quite this far down, but I was way, way down," Van Dam recalled. "It took me until almost the weekend before the election to bring the numbers up." He said he didn't have "any great expectations" about where he'd stand at this point in the Senate race.
Bennett said he's well aware of Van Dam's political skills. "While we're obviously very encouraged, we will run a serious race because Paul Van Dam is a very serious politician on the other side."
Van Dam said he's hoping his time as attorney general will work in his favor.
But Bennett said Van Dam has been out of office for a number of years. "It's been 16 years since his name has been on a ballot. That's a long time for people to have to look back and be reminded who he is."
It's a lesson that Bennett said he learned during his first run for the Senate 12 years ago.
"I thought when I ran in '92 the Bennett name would be better known because my father was a senator for 24 years," he said. But it had been 18 years since his father retired, and a lot of voters didn't remember.
Political consultant Ted Wilson, a one-time Democratic candidate for governor and U.S. Senate, said Bennett's strong showing in the polls is "typical of a well-entrenched incumbent," but is not insurmountable.
"I wouldn't give up on Paul," Wilson said. "I think he's got a shot. It might be a long one. It might be a three-pointer with the eyes closed, but sometimes people even make those."
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