About 6,000 Utahns will make some big political decisions Saturday. The biggest ones: possibly picking the next governor, U.S. congressmen and senator.
At the very least, about 3,500 Republicans, meeting at the party's state convention at Sandy's South Towne Expo Center, and 2,500 Democrats, meeting at their party's state convention at the Salt Palace, will decide which names appear on the primary election ballot on June 22.
"I think there is a high potential to redefine the state based on who the next governor will be, and that is one reason why everyone is so interested in this convention," said Sen. John Valentine, who is also a Republican delegate from Utah County. "The governor's race is definitely the marquee race in this convention."
In both conventions, if a candidate gets 60 percent delegate support in any round of voting, he or she becomes the party's nominee, avoiding a dreaded June primary election. And in heavily Republican Utah, winning the GOP nomination can be tantamount to winning the final election in many races.
As usual, the Republicans have the most candidates competing — 14 Republicans vying for three contested seats, and only six at the most will move on to a primary election.
Eight Republicans, including Gov. Olene Walker, are running for the party's nominee for governor. The Democrats have already settled on their candidate, Scott Matheson Jr., the son of the late governor by the same name.
Three Republicans seek their party's nomination in the 2nd Congressional District, and another three in the 3rd Congressional District.
Democrats have only two major contests: Two candidates are seeking the Democratic nomination to the 1st Congressional District, and two more for the U.S. Senate slot.
'High-spirited' slate
For Republicans, this is the biggest election year since 1992 when Gov. Mike Leavitt first won the governor's race. And he proved to be a formidable political force, forcing would-be Republican challengers to the sidelines.
"It's the most important race in more than a decade, as is evident by the large number of very qualified candidates who are running," said Valentine, who is supporting Board of Regents chairman Nolan Karras. "And probably half of them wouldn't be running if Leavitt were (seeking a fourth term)."
Winston Wilkinson, Utah's Republican national committeeman and also a state delegate, said there has been a lot of pressure building from qualified Republicans who wanted to run but who had deferred to Leavitt. "For some, they couldn't wait any longer," he said.
The result, he added, is a slate of "high-spirited, strong people" who have energized the Republican Party. "Republicans have been complacent and the turnout has been low," Wilkinson said. But the high interest in the governor's race should increase voter turnout, and "that could help Republicans in other races" like the 2nd Congressional District, where Republicans are itching to unseat Democratic Rep. Jim Matheson.
Valentine, Wilkinson and others expect a GOP gubernatorial primary, and probably primaries for the contested congressional races as well.
"I think we will see some primaries," agreed Joe Cannon, state GOP chairman. "We will see a primary in the governor's race, I believe. We may see a primary in the 2nd District. And we could see a primary in the 3rd District, although that is not as possible as the other two."
Cannon said "primaries are part of the process. But, sure, sometimes we'd like to be like the Democrats and wire this thing so we avoid primaries — they are costly and we'd like to save up our ammo for our (Democratic) opponents in November."
The race for the GOP gubernatorial nomination has dominated headlines and public interest for months, particularly after Walker surprised everyone by announcing she would seek the office she inherited when Leavitt went to Washington, D.C., to head the Environmental Protection Agency.
Already more than $4.6 million, a pre-convention outlay record, has been spent in the GOP governor's race — all with an eye to getting support from the 3,500 state GOP delegates.
Lost in the shuffle has been the GOP race for the 2nd Congressional District. Republicans are desperately trying to knock out two-term Democratic incumbent Jim Matheson, who has won despite a predominance of Republican voters.
Even further in the shadows is the race for the GOP nomination to Utah's 3rd Congressional District where Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, has his strongest challenge since he defeated the Democratic incumbent in 1996.
Democrats are hoping to avoid costly primary races for their nominees to the U.S. Senate and 1st District. And that would mean more time and more money to battle the Republicans.
"I hope we'll have our nominees at convention," said Donald Dunn, state Democratic Party chairman. "I think Paul Van Dam will be our U.S. Senate nominee. And I hope our delegates will pick one person in the 1st District race."
Let the Republicans spend time, money and hard feelings on primary fights, said Dunn. "It will take a lot of money to beat Rob Bishop in the 1st District. I think we can beat him, but we need to get behind one person now."
Governor
Saturday could see a sitting Utah governor voted out of office for the first time in 50 years — in the process providing the swan song for two of Utah's longest-serving politicians — Walker and Jim Hansen.
Walker, 73, was Leavitt's lieutenant governor for 11 years. Her announcement that she wanted her own term surprised many Utahns, who thought she would serve out her year in office as a care-taker governor.
She's spent less money than her serious GOP challengers, relying on her name identification and moderate stands on social issues as a counterweight to the other candidates' conservatism.
Jim Hansen, 71, also running for governor this year, is Utah's longest serving congressman with 22 years in the U.S. House of Representatives from the 1st District. He has also never lost an election.
But will the delegates opt for a younger generation of state leadership?
Various analyses and delegate polls show political newcomers Jon Huntsman Jr., 41, and Fred Lampropoulos, 54, hold slight leads over the other six GOP hopefuls. They are also the candidates who have spent the most money in the preconvention run-up.
Huntsman, son of well-known Utah philanthropist/industrialist Jon Huntsman Sr., has twice been named an ambassador by Republican presidential administrations. He's never stood for election.
Many thought his first race would be for the U.S. Senate, but current Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and Bennett could still be years away from retirement. And Huntsman wasn't in the mood to wait.
Lampropoulos is a bit of a Utah anomaly. He's a Greek-American, a convert to the LDS faith and a self-made millionaire who has spent more than $2 million of his own funds in a well-orchestrated campaign of mass-media name identification and one-on-one delegate solicitation.
Six months ago, few gave him a chance of coming out of convention. Today, he is one of the favorites.
Utah House speaker Marty Stephens, R-Farr West, and Board of Regents chairman Nolan Karras on Saturday could be victims of circumstance. In a less-crowded field, they could have been the odds-on favorites instead of hustling just to survive the convention.
Stephens nearly challenged Leavitt in 2000, conducting a secret delegate poll to see if he could knock the then-governor out at the state GOP convention. In the end, he didn't get in the race and ultimately supported Leavitt for a third term.
Karras, from northern Utah like Stephens, then got in the race. And two men who consider themselves pragmatic problem-solvers were fighting over their home turf. Squeezing the northern Utah vote got even more difficult when Hansen jumped in.
Admitting he needed some help in the convention, Karras picked former U.S. Rep. Enid Greene, now current state GOP vice chairwoman, as his lieutenant governor running mate. Greene was forced from office in 1996 in the wake of a nationally reported personal and political scandal.
State Sen. Parley Hellewell of Provo is vying for the nomination by appealing to the far right of the political spectrum. He has spent a large amount of his own money, including the much-coveted "Parley Hellewell for Governor" mouse pads that are already collectors' items on Capitol Hill.
Rounding out the field is Gary Benson, a former university professor in the Midwest who says he is a million-to-one shot. Benson says he is a cousin of the Mathesons, and he could whip Scott as a kid and he could beat him again in the race for governor.
U.S. House and Senate
In the shadow of the high-profile governor's race are intra-party challenges in the 1st Congressional District and U.S. Senate (among Democrats) and 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts (among Republicans).
It's a re-match-plus-one in the 2nd District. Former state Rep. John Swallow and venture-capitalist Tim Bridgewater faced each other in a 2002 primary. For a third of the delegates who voted in the 2002 race and then got re-elected this year, it's dj vu.
Swallow and Bridgewater, a former Utah County GOP chairman, survived a field of 12 candidates in the 2002 convention, with Bridgewater losing a close primary six weeks later. Swallow then lost an even closer final election to Jim Matheson.
This year Salt Lake County Councilman David Wilde joins the Republican mix, with all three saying they are the person to take out Matheson.
Swallow and Bridgewater never really stopped running for Congress since their 2002 defeats. Swallow, with the help of the independent GOP organization Club For Growth, has raised more than $600,000. He says that's a Utah record in pre-convention fund raising.
A millionaire, Bridgewater has loaned his campaign around $250,000 and appears ready to spend more if he gets into a primary with Swallow, an attorney.
Bridgewater and Swallow each hope to get 60 percent of the vote Saturday, thus avoiding a costly primary that will only drain funds they want to spend against Matheson later.
Despite the fact that he's routinely ranked as one of the most conservative members of Congress, Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, (brother to party chairman Joe Cannon) has faced several credible intra-party challenges in his re-elections to the 3rd District.
Former state Rep. Matt Throckmorton was one of two Republicans Cannon defeated in the 2002 convention, avoiding a primary. Saturday, Throckmorton is joined by local attorney Greg Hawkins, who just missed forcing a primary with Sen. Orrin Hatch in the 2000 convention.
Both Throckmorton and Hawkins say Rep. Cannon doesn't listen to constituent needs and gets involved in odd congressional debates. Throckmorton has been pounding Rep. Cannon on his immigration stands, for example.
But Rep. Cannon has proven resilient. A millionaire, Cannon, who has not raised a lot of cash this year, can spend freely in a primary if need be.
The Democratic contests have also been overshadowed by the GOP fights. Former Democratic Utah Attorney General Paul Van Dam is the odds-on favorite to win the Democratic nomination over Cody Judy for the right to challenge Sen. Bob Bennett.
And Democratic leaders recruited Logan City Council chairman Steve Thompson to challenge freshman Rep. Rob Bishop, R-Utah, in the 1st District. But Salt Laker Brian Earl Watkins filed as a Democrat the last night of candidate filings, requiring the convention vote Saturday to see who will be the nominee.
E-mail: bbjr@desnews.com; spang@desnews.com