Nine athletic programs at the state's five universities — including four at BYU — rated below the cutoff mark in the Academic Progress Report (APR) released Monday by the NCAA, and all could be in jeopardy of losing scholarships if the numbers don't improve.
Only three programs — BYU men's volleyball (797), women's golf (833) and Utah baseball (850) — fall considerably below the mandated 925.
Utah men's basketball (921), Utah State men's basketball (904) and BYU football (914) fall below the magic number, but have been deemed in compliance due to the Confidence Interval Adjustment, which takes into consideration several factors that may be identified as under-performing in this year's report. Those programs will not be subject to penalty once the adjusted score is applied.
Essentially, the statistical "confidence boundary" is the equivalent of wiggle room in the data, which may change the figure posted Monday because of a mathematical margin for error once more data is collected.
"We probably didn't quite reach the figure we thought we would with those four sports, but it is still early, and this could be corrected if those sports maintain athletes who are academically eligible," said BYU assistant athletic department compliance director Chad Gwilliam.
Said Duane Busby, director of BYU football operations, "Athletic directors all over the country are looking at this APR and concerned about a misleading message.
"A sport could be well below the 925 figure and not be in any kind of danger of a penalty (loss of scholarships) if they don't have any athletes go 0 for 2 (ineligible athletes who don't return)."
BYU football will most likely conform completely to the cutoff when it counts, Busby said.
The NCAA has yet to define "waivers," which take into account reasons some athletes leave school in good academic standing. The reasons could be a transfer due to a coaching change, somebody leaving early for the NFL or NBA, or, as in the case of BYU, dismissal due to a problem with the honor code.
"The NCAA has yet to determine how this reform applies to a school's 'mission statement,' which includes BYU or service institutions where an athlete at an academy like Air Force may drop out after a year because he no longer is interested in a military career," Busby said.
The figures released Monday are for one academic year only, and on the NCAA Web site (ncaa.org) there are disclaimers throughout the release of information that the data is preliminary.
NCAA officials cautioned the report may lead to very small sample sizes within certain sports groups. Because of that, the NCAA will not be using Monday's figures alone for rewarding or penalizing schools.
Eventually, the NCAA will report data that will only include a four-year rate for all sports.
Any school that has a sport below 925 could face loss of scholarships in that sport, if in deficit.
"Our hope is that that not happen," BYU compliance director Jim Kimmel said. "Potentially, the figure (for) football will reach the 925 level just on the statistical confidence boundary alone through the reporting period. So will baseball. I think, at this early stage, we could say football is OK. Because of the small roster in women's golf and men's volleyball, if they kick in a better percentage, they may not face a penalty at all, especially when the Confidence Interval Adjustment is made." Schools are expected to file another academic progress report in October, six weeks after school begins. That data will be calculated by the NCAA and be available in December.
"The two-year data is more significant than the one-year study," Kimmel said. "Right now, it is too early with women's golf to know what their grade (833) ultimately means. Same with men's volleyball."
BYU's overall grade for 21 sports is 936, with women's gymnastics and tennis 1,000. The overall Academic Progress Rate for all Division I schools is 948, with public institutions posting an average rate of 938 and private schools like BYU at 965. BYU's average is slightly below all public schools and just under three percentage points below private schools like Notre Dame and Stanford.
Utah's overall APR number was 954, above the Division I average (948) and above the public institution average (938). Utah State is 951, Weber State is 963 and Southern Utah is 951.
However, two of Utah's nine sports — baseball at 850 and men's basketball at 921— were below the NCAA cutline of 925 at which penalties would be assessed.
The women's programs at Utah are doing very well with basketball, softball and volleyball each receiving perfect scores of 1,000.
"Most of our sports have done well," said U. athletic director Chris Hill. "We're going to take a careful look at this."
Hill explained that baseball is the lowest of all the sports in the NCAA because of a "systematic problem" with a lot of players leaving their college early to play professional baseball.
But the Utah A.D. is confident his baseball numbers will improve.
As for basketball, Hill said that number was low because 50 percent of the APR is based on retention, and the Utes lost two players last year, Ryan Werch and Stefan Zimmerman. Also, Nick Jacobson, a senior on last year's team, hasn't graduated yet, and Hill said "you lose a retention point" when a fifth-year player doesn't graduate.
Hill said his school would have been in real trouble a few years ago when five players left the basketball program the same year.
"If a lot of kids leave over a concentrated period, you're probably going to lose a scholarship," he said. "It will take Ray (Giacoletti) a little while to get his program from 92 to 94 or 95, which is where I'd like to see it."
Utah State basketball is in the same situation as Utah, but Brian Evans, associate athletic director over student-athlete services, is pleased with where USU is currently.
"We are in good graces and we are pleased with what we are seeing," he said. "There aren't any red flags or yellow flags."
Weber State (women's volleyball 889) and Southern Utah (men's golf 893) have programs that fall below 925, but both are considered in compliance once the standard adjustment is applied.
"We are very happy with Weber State's academic progress rate. We're happy with the direction the NCAA is taking on this and feel like it will benefit institutions like Weber State," said Melissa Freigang, associate athletic director/senior women's administrator and compliance officer. "Historically, Weber State has done well academically. We've won two Presidential Cups and are in contention for a third. We're in really good shape because we already place a huge emphasis on academics. As far as we're concerned, it's just another NCAA report."
Academic profress
The following programs fall below the cutoff mark (925) in the Academic Progress Report (APR) released by the NCAA on Monday:
BYU (4): Baseball (909)*, football (914)*, women's golf (833) men's volleyball (797).
Utah (2): Baseball (850), men's basketball (921)*
Utah State (1): Men's basketball (904)*
Weber State (1): Women's volleyball (889)*
Southern Utah (1): Men's golf (893)*
* Indicates programs that will be in compliance once the Confidence Interval Adjustment is figured in.
Contributing: Mike Sorensen, Jay Hinton, Trent Toone
E-mail: dharmon@desnews.com