JERUSALEM — When Prime Minister Ariel Sharon visits President Bush at his Texas ranch today, he'll be expecting a diplomatic pat on the back for leaping the last political barrier to the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers and settlers from the Gaza Strip this summer.
Both sides see the Gaza plan as the best way to move toward peace with the new Palestinian leadership, so neither wants much attention paid to the two nations' disagreements on the scope of Israeli settlements, Israel's hold on Jerusalem, and the coordination of security needs.
Thanks to a script for the meeting that was carefully prepared weeks ago, these issues will appear only on the fringes of the daylong visit by Sharon, a rancher himself, at the Crawford setting that is reserved for the closest of allies.
"The idea is that two ranchers will meet to discuss things important to them, things in common, like Gaza," said Sharon aide Rannan Gissen. "It doesn't help either of them to focus on the negative."
The intricacies of the settlement issue, however, mean it can't be ignored completely. Under pressure from the Palestinians and key European allies, including Britain, the White House is expected to criticize Sharon for recent statements by some of his ministers that Israel will build more houses around sensitive areas in Jerusalem.
Bush told reporters as he was returning to Texas from Pope John Paul II's funeral in Rome on Friday that he would speak to Sharon about U.S. concerns about building more homes.
"I've raised the issue of settlement expansions publicly. What I say publicly, I say privately. The road map has clear obligations on settlements, and that we expect the prime minister to adhere to those road map obligations," Bush said.
The bigger picture, however, is that U.S.-Israeli relations remain rock solid. The visit to the ranch, the first for Sharon despite his 10 other U.S. visits during the Bush presidency, is designed to highlight that.
The White House considers Sharon's Gaza withdrawal plan as the best hope to end the deadlock in the Middle East peace process. The plan would be an historic step, as it would mark the first time Jewish settlements would be dismantled from land Palestinians want as a state.
Bush has made diplomatic leaps to help Sharon move the plan forward.
Last year, Bush broke with decades of American diplomacy by announcing that any final peace deal made between Israel and the Palestinians would have to take into account "realities on the ground," an indication that Israel would be able to keep some of its settlements in the West Bank.
Sharon has used this to garner support for the Gaza plan among right-wingers in his ruling Likud Party, which has traditionally supported settlement activity.
Regardless, a rebel Likud faction joined with religious parties opposed to Jews leaving any land they controlled in Biblical times tried — and failed — to derail the Gaza plan and force Sharon's resignation.
However, the man whom Bush has nicknamed "the Bull" finally outmaneuvered all his opponents, winning the last parliamentary battle two weeks ago.
At the ranch, and in meetings later in the week in Washington with State Department and White House officials, Sharon is expected to detail ways Israel can coordinate the Gaza withdrawal with the Palestinians.
Israel believes there is a high risk for chaos in Gaza if Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas does not move quickly to disarm and arrest militants.
Flying to Washington on Sunday, Sharon said that Palestinian militants' use of mortars in Gaza after Israeli forces killed three teenagers there was "a flagrant violation of the understandings" he had reached with Abbas, "and this will be a central issue to be raised in my talks with President Bush."
Abbas says moving to strongly against the militants could lead to a Palestinian civil war. His approach instead has been to co-opt militants into reformed security agencies.
Israeli officials say they will complain to U.S. officials about this approach, but privately they say their complaints won't carry much weight given Bush's high opinion of Abbas.
Abbas is scheduled to meet with Bush within a month, although no date has been set.
Other issues that might arise in the Crawford talks are:
— Sharon aides want to discuss the threat posed to their country by Iran's rapid progress toward developing nuclear weapons. Israel perceives a softening of U.S. policy towards Iran. Many in Israel's security establishment would like the U.S. to approve a military strike against Iran, but that option appears off the table in Washington, they say.
The American side, by contrast, could raise Israel's sales to China of military equipment such as rockets, which the White House is afraid could upset the balance of power in Asia.