WASHINGTON — President Bush started his search for a new Supreme Court justice Saturday, gearing up for a decision that could have a lasting impact on his presidency, his political party and the nation.
By picking a staunch conservative to replace retiring Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, Bush could do more to advance the conservative agenda than he has been able to accomplish in five years in the White House. But he also would risk a divisive battle in the Senate and a potential backlash from Americans who favor a middle-ground approach to abortion, gay rights, affirmative action and other hot-button social issues.
In today's politically polarized world, with 24-hour cable news, 30-second attack ads, Internet interest groups and ideologically driven bloggers, a contentious nomination battle could drive a deeper wedge between Americans on opposite sides of the political divide.
Democrats have already served notice that they would use a nomination fight to cast Republicans as extremists who are out of touch with average Americans. Republicans say they would paint Democrats as obstructionists.
Any fallout from a bitter confirmation battle could easily spill into next year's congressional elections, when Republican control of Congress will be tested at the polls.
Replacing O'Connor with a like-minded jurist also carries some political risk for Bush, who owes his re-election to strong support from his conservative base. The president's conservative supporters view her retirement as an ideal opportunity to rein in a judiciary that they consider hostile to their values. To them, the vacancy is a test of their faith in Bush, and, by extension, the Republican Party.
"This is going to be a defining moment for President Bush," said the Rev. Patrick Mahoney, director of the Christian Defense Coalition, a conservative group. "If 9/11 was the defining moment of his first term, the composition of the Supreme Court is the defining moment of the second."
Bush has spent most of his political career trying to balance his conservative views against his desire to win support from Americans who might not agree with him. For example, he opposes abortion, but he concedes that most Americans are not ready to outlaw the practice.
"I've always believed that abortion ought to be illegal with the exception of rape, incest or life of the mother. But, look, I'm a realist, as well," the president told a Danish journalist last week.
The stakes at the Supreme Court, the final word on abortion rights and all other legal issues, make it harder to find the middle ground. Conservative groups have made it clear that they expect Bush to select a new ally for Justices Clarence Thomas and Antonin Scalia, the court's most conservative members.
Bush expressed admiration for both men during the presidential campaign.
"Now it is time to make good on those campaign promises, Mr. President," Troy Newman, the president of the anti-abortion group Operation Rescue, said in a statement issued after O'Connor's resignation announcement Friday. "Now it is time to fulfill your obligation to God and to those who elected you, and appoint a staunchly pro-life judge to the Supreme Court."
It seems unlikely that replacing O'Connor with a stalwart anti-abortion justice would spell the end of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 Supreme Court ruling legalizing abortion. O'Connor voted with a 6-3 majority in the last clear test of that ruling, so shifting one vote is not likely to make a difference at the court.
But the addition of an anti-abortion justice would probably make it easier for states to restrict the procedure. And it isn't just abortion that's at stake. O'Connor cast the deciding vote against the court's conservative wing in cases involving the death penalty for minors, affirmative action for law school admission and the display of the Ten Commandments inside Kentucky courts.
"Supreme Court nominees are a president's most important legacy," said Neil Siegel, a law professor at Duke University in North Carolina. "He's got two roads before him, and they are rather stark choices. One is to try to put through the most conservative person that he can. The other is to go for a more moderate-type conservative.
"No matter who he chooses, the court is going to move to the right," Siegel added. "The question is how far."
White House spokesman Trent Duffy said Bush began considering his options on Saturday during a holiday weekend visit to the presidential retreat in Camp David, Md. He will take a stack of information on possible nominees with him Tuesday when he flies to Europe for a three-day trip to Denmark and Scotland.
Although White House aides began looking at possible court nominees in Bush's first term, White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Bush has not looked his options in any detail.
McClellan said Bush would not announce a decision until after he returns from Europe on Friday. The president has pledged to visit with congressional leaders from both parties when he gets back.
"He has not, at this point, given any serious consideration to any nominee," McClellan told reporters Friday. Bush has offered no clues to his leanings, saying only that he will find a nominee that Americans can be proud of.