Pignanelli: Beauty contest: "A competition based on judgment of beauty or popularity." (Webster's A New Millennium Dictionary, 2006). This renowned dictionary could have added this definition: "The 2007 Salt Lake City Mayoral Primary."
There is no sunlight between the four major candidates in terms of issues, policies, attitudes towards Rocky, targeted special-interest groups or emotional tenor in speeches. Although with varied backgrounds, all claim experience in politics, community and economic development. Indeed, the major distinction so far is Dave Buhler is using round lawn signs while Ralph Becker signs have a distinctive yellow coloring. As a consequence of the contenders huddling together, voters will be forced to behave as judges in a beauty contest and make a determination on the basis of "political beauty" characteristics: perceived location on political spectrum, gender, popularity of name, support of key activist organizations, etc. On this criterion, Salt Lake County Councilwoman Jenny Wilson will remain the clear favorite on Election Day.
In the 1999 primary, there were five major candidates with Democratic credentials. Two of them gambled on risky positions and were able to separate themselves from the pack and to emerge from the primary. (Rocky Anderson aggressively attacked the Deedee Corradini administration while Stuart Reid captured Republican votes on moral issues.) Unless a current candidate takes a similar risk, the default goes to Wilson.
Last week, this paper printed the recent Dan Jones poll detailing Wilson is maintaining her lead. The progressive councilwoman and daughter of a popular mayor remains a formidable bulwark against opponents who share her platform. Further, the Jones survey indicated that Wilson has high approval ratings, thereby dismissing grumbles against her perceived inexperience.
Many politicos (especially me) predicted Keith Christensen's abandonment of the Republican Party would deteriorate his base. But according to Jones, the move has not impacted Christensen's support. (Which raises the question: Are voters aware of this change?) This dynamic is interesting for several reasons. If Republican voters are not bothered by Christensen's move to independent status, then they are a moderate bunch who could support the other candidates. Further, Christensen may set a trend for Republican Salt Lake City candidates in the future.
Salt Lake City is increasingly a left of center locale. Yet, the highest demographic that remains undecided in the mayor's race are those who consider themselves "very liberal." Will a mayoral candidate make the bold move to attract these hard-liners, while another tries to garner independent voters?
Political observers are watching with interest whether the mayoral contenders follow the road map to electoral success articulated by Dan Jones — the patriarch of Utah politicos.
Webb: With a little more than six weeks to go before the Sept. 11 primary election, the real mayoral campaign now begins. Voters will start to pay more attention, and candidates will ramp up the campaign intensity, adding media advertising to become more visible.
I believe this race is still up for grabs among the four leading candidates. All four are solid, smart and hard-working, and none is out of contention.
The Dan Jones poll provides a nice snapshot of where the race is today among people who said they are likely to vote. However, outcomes of low-turnout municipal primary races are notoriously hard to predict.
With four strong candidates splitting votes, it doesn't take a lot of votes to emerge from the primary election. But what keeps campaign strategists awake at night is worrying about how to motivate their supporters to vote on Election Day.
So the game for the next six weeks is targeting voters who will likely support a particular candidate and getting them to the voting booth. This requires organizational and managerial prowess. It requires excellent field work and frequent direct communications with supporters through phone calls, direct mail and contact from friends, neighbors and opinion leaders that voters trust. This kind of campaigning isn't high-profile or full of glory. It's just down-and-dirty campaign basics slogging through the lists, identifying supporters and working them with direct mail and phone calls.
Some level of mass media television and radio buys are important to show the candidate is visible and viable but much less important than a strong ground game.
Today, Wilson is clearly the front-runner. Buhler has an excellent chance to emerge from the primary if he can rally Republican/moderate voters and get them to the polls. But Christensen is showing some movement and has plenty of money that can make a difference if he spends it wisely.
And Becker, perhaps the most low-key of the four main candidates, should not be underestimated. He has worked the grassroots hard, knocking on thousands of doors. He could be the surprise of the election.
A successful political campaign consists of a candidate and staff doing a million little things (stuffing envelopes, making phone calls, appearing before countless small groups, doing literature drops, raising money, walking door-to-door) that, by themselves, seem inconsequential, but in total add up to victory on Election Day.
This race won't be determined by advertising but will come down to who works the hardest and executes the best strategy in the last month.
Republican LaVarr Webb was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and Deseret News managing editor. He now is a political consultant and lobbyist. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli, who ran for Salt Lake mayor in 2003, served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.