Utah lost about 2,200 jobs during the past year and may lose as many as 19,000 next year, the Department of Workforce Services said Tuesday.
The state has been moving toward zero growth in employment for the past year, and the trend is going to continue, said Workforce Services' chief economist Mark Knold. The state's unemployment rate could reach 5.5 percent in 2009. Mirroring the nation's economic turmoil, the Utah economic outlook for 2009 has turned "quite bearish," he said.
"That means that it's going to get worse," he said in an interview. "It's going downhill."
A loss of 19,000 jobs in 2009 would be Utah's sharpest employment downturn since 1954, Knold said. Industries such as manufacturing, financial and business services, information technology and eventually the trade sector will likely feel the pain of the struggling economy.
The division's employment report for October estimated that the number of nonfarm wage and salaried jobs contracted 0.2 percent compared with the same period last year. It was the first time this year that Utah has experienced negative job growth.
September's employment growth rate was at 0.1 percent. Since 1950, Utah has averaged job growth of 3.3 percent,
which is fifth-best in the nation. The state has experienced year-over-year job losses just four times in the past 58 years.
"For us to go into a job loss environment is very, very much out of character," Knold said. "It's a testament to the overall economic environment around us."
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for October in Utah remained the same as September's rate, at 3.5 percent. In October 2007, the state's unemployment rate was 2.8 percent.
About 48,700 Utahns were considered unemployed in October, compared with 38,600 in October last year.
The nation's unemployment rate rose to 6.5 percent in October 2008, a 34 percent jump from October 2007, when the rate was 4.8 percent. Last month's national unemployment rate was up from September's 6.1 percent.
He said that despite the overall job losses in most employment categories, sectors that have withstood economic downturns are health care, education and government, and that scenario will likely continue.
Knold said Utah's job downturn has been concentrated mainly in the construction industry, which lost 13,400 jobs from October 2007 to October 2008.
"It is time for round two in the economic downturn that's affecting Utah," he said. "Round one was largely the housing market. ... Round two is the phase where now industries other than construction are starting to slump and will drive Utah's employment count into contraction."
Knold said that the federal bailout plan that was approved by Congress might help get the U.S. and state economies pointed in the right direction, but a turnaround will require time.
"We are forecasting that all of 2009 will largely be a job loss environment in Utah and nationally," he said. "In 2010, we are forecasting a small turnaround, but it is possible that the sluggishness could extend into 2010."
E-mail: jlee@desnews.com