Had Dolphins over Saints as my Upset of the Week last week, and with Miami up 24-3 late in the first half, the Upset Bird was preening insufferably up in the press box. Anyhow, the Dolphins choked, of course, but it was all good. I emerged a solid 7-4-2 against the spread anyway, and my sports writing colleagues delighted to violate the no-cheering-in-the-press box edict by showering the unpopular Upset Bird with invective and derision in lockstep with the Dolphins' collapse. "Aaawwwk!" mocked a grinning Edwin Pope. "Awww."
This week's selections:
DOLPHINS (2-4) AT JETS (4-3)
When: 1 p.m. EDT Sunday
Line: NYJ by 3 ; Cote's pick: NYJ 27-20
Nothing about this series surprises me anymore. I can envision either team winning with relative ease as readily as I can see a tense shootout seeping into overtime. Surest bet is a physical, bruiser-game with roiling tempers befitting one of NFL's most intense division duels. Alas, I think the intangibles side with NYJ here, beyond the venue. Miami is trying to rebound from a truly demoralizing loss to N'Awlins, while Planes have the added fuel of having lost in Miami only three weeks ago on Ronnie Brown's last-second TD. Other factors: Mark Sanchez has better pass-catchers than Chad Henne, and Jets defense is in a better place right now than Miami's.
VIKINGS (6-1) AT PACKERS (4-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: GB by 3; Cote's pick: GB 34-27
I'm not totally convinced Brett Favre's first return to Lambeau Field as an ex-Packer is the stuff of rapturous, near-orgasmic anticipation outside of the two competing markets and the shills at Fox-TV. But it's enough to merit Game of the Week honors. Matchup only a month after Favre pitched an exciting 30-23 win over the Gee Bees in Minny. Pack's defense has solidified since a key to this pick. Also remember that Aaron Rodgers threw for 384 yards in the first meeting. I expect Packers fans to cheer before the game as Favre mostly gets the hero's welcome he deserves. And then cheer after the game as No. 4 is sent a packing as a loser.
TEXANS (4-3) AT BILLS (3-4)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: HOU by 3 ; Cote's pick: BUF 23-21
"AAWWK!" booms the Upset Bird. "Buffalaawwk!" Ryan Fitzpatrick starts a second straight game at QB for Buffs. I make this a venue pick on what should be a chilly, see-your-breath day. Also think Texans WR Andre Johnson, coughing up blood last week with a bruised lung, won't be his usual dynamic self. "Coughing up blaawwk," nods U-Bird. "Bills last made the playaawwk in 1999, and to make matters worse they are situated in Buffalo. Their poor, doubly suffering fans deserve a break. Deserve a braawwk!"
RAMS (0-7) AT LIONS (1-5)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: OFF; Cote's pick: DET 23-20
"Dog of the Week" does not do this putrid game justice. Judges are sentencing petty criminals to watch this game, in lieu of community service. It promises such awful football that even the TV announcers will have paper bags on their heads. The game stayed off betting boards, either because of doubt whether Matthew Stafford or Daunte Culpepper would start at QB for Detroit, or because no bettor wanted to get close enough to the stink.
BRONCOS (6-0) AT RAVENS (3-3)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: BAL by 3 ; Cote's pick: BAL 28-24
Denver gunning for its first 7-0 breakout since Elway-esque 1998 but still not getting much love, with Balts favored despite I like Joe Flacco as a home starter, although Crows' defense must prove, against increasing evidence, that it hasn't slipped from elite to just OK.
49ERS (3-3) AT COLTS (6-0)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: IND by 12; Cote's pick: IND 35-21
Teams still unbeaten into November are always due a stumble, but it won't be this week for Indy, not at home, and not with an MVP-hot Peyton Manning facing a team that's light on Niners trying to goose the scoreboard by switching to Alex Smith at QB, but I wouldn't bet on that.
BROWNS (1-6) AT BEARS (3-3)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: CHI by 13 ; Cote's pick: CHI 24-6
Chicago is a frustrated team right now, and here's a chance to exhale a lot of that toxic stuff with a big, cleansing win. Opponent also serves as nice get-well card for Jay Cutler. (Dear Eric Mangini: Your season is in the tank and Derek Anderson sucks. Might be time to give Brady Quinn another shot).
SEAHAWKS (2-4) AT COWBOYS (4-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: DAL by 9 ; Cote's pick: DAL 34-17
Inconsistent 'Hawks tempt getting this many points; could be sandwich game for 'Boys, in between Atlanta and Philly. Still like Dallas and a heating-up Tony Romo at home. I'm not big on monthly trends, but Romo has won 11 straight November starts with 120.4 aggregate passer rating.
GIANTS (5-2) AT EAGLES (4-2)
When: 1 p.m. Sunday
Line: PHI by 1; Cote's pick: NYG 23-20
Eli Manning has won four starts in a row in The City of Brotherly Shove, and I can't see the Biggies, once 5-0, suffering a third straight defeat. That's enough to make this one a minor upset call, especially with Andy Reid's Birds coming in off a short week after playing on the road Monday night.
JAGUARS (3-3) AT TITANS (0-6)
When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: TEN by 3; Cote's pick: TEN 24-20
Jax has been decent since an 0-2 start, whipped Titans, 37-17, a month ago and probably should be favored, yet everybody keeps expecting sad, winless, embarrassed Tennessee — 13-3 last season — to suddenly find the light switch. Guess I'm one of them. Venue call.
RAIDERS (2-5) AT CHARGERS (3-3)
When: 4:05 p.m. Sunday
Line: SD by 16 ; Cote's pick: SD 41-13
The franchise owned by fossilized Al Davis stinks like dead, decaying rats. So does corpulent QB JaMarcus Russell. San Diego has won 12 straight in this series. LaDainian Tomlinson averages 115.4 yards in his career against the Raiders and will run like it's 2006. Umm, any questions?
PANTHERS (2-4) AT CARDINALS (4-2)
When: 4:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: ARI by 10; Cote's pick: ARI 25-19
Jake Delhomme was affirmed as Carols' starting QB despite a league-high 14 interceptions. "Yay!" announced Cardinals cornerbacks. Like 'Zona in desert, but cautiously. Panthers have won five straight in series, and Cats have enough pass D to limit Air Warner and keep margin inside betting.
FALCONS (4-2) AT SAINTS (6-0)
When: 8:30 p.m. Monday
Line: NO by 10; Cote's pick: NO 38-23
Possibly the Game of the Week if not for Favrenomics, here's a huge division test fit for the Monday stage. Drew Brees is 5-1 as a Saint vs. 'Lanta and has an offense that seems unstoppable, as Dolphin defenders could testify. Time to start accepting New Orleans as the best team in the NFL. Period.
OFF THIS WEEK
—Bengals (5-2; next vs. Ravens): 'Gals gunning for first playoff spot since 2005 and only second since 1990, and Cedric Benson leading league in rushing. The entire city of Cincinnati is bruised from pinching itself.
—Buccaneers (0-7; next vs. Packers): Rookie Josh Freeman taking over at QB after 35-7 loss to Pats in London. (God Save the Bucs). Tampa-St. Pete writers have members of Buccaneers' winless 1976 team on speed-dial.
—Chiefs (1-6; next at Jaguars): Awful KC just lost, 37-7, to San Diego, and now RB Larry Johnson is suspended for committing Twittercide, belittling his head coach and using gay slurs. Otherwise, it's all good!
—Patriots (5-2; next vs. Dolphins): Almost doesn't seem fair, does it? Poor Miami. New England is hot and Tom Brady is as good as ever, and now the Dolphins get genius Bill Belichick and the rested Patriots coming off a bye.
—Redskins (2-5; next at Falcons): Monday's home division loss to Philadelphia put Jim Zorn's job in further jeopardy. But Jason Campbell remains the QB for now, or until somebody changes Zorn's mind for him.
—Steelers (5-2; next at Broncos): Defending champion Steelers just beat the unbeaten Vikings. Colts and Pats are the talk of the AFC, but it might be time to start crediting the possibility of a Pittsburgh repeat.