Although winter refuses to go away, this is the time of year when a lot of green political shoots poke their heads above ground to test their viability. Enormous interest exists in municipal races this year and the partisan contests in 2010 and 2012. A big focus is the prospective 4th Congressional District, which could be contested in 2010 or 2012, depending on congressional action.
Will the congressional redistricting map developed in a 2006 special session be utilized? (It creates a new 4th District that includes southwestern Salt Lake County and the entire western side of the state down to Washington County, while reducing the 2nd District to Salt Lake City, east Salt Lake County and the Park City area.)
Pignanelli: "Reapportionment is a political thicket best avoided by the Courts" (Justice Felix Frankfurter). The 2006 map is likely to remain in place, although there will be tweaks to accommodate potential candidates for the new position. The revised 2nd District is in many ways a "gimme" to incumbent Rep. Jim Matheson. A majority of the voters will be Democrats or independents leaning Democrat. (The remaining congressional districts will be solid red.) Some national Republicans are complaining that just giving a district to Democrats is bad politics. But Matheson is so appealing and politically formidable, the Utah GOP is shrewdly acknowledging his strength and limiting it to two counties.
Webb: The 2006 map still makes sense (you can see it at this address by scrolling down the page: www.le.state.ut.us/~2006S5/bills/sbillenr/sb5001.pdf) but might require tweaking due to population changes. Republicans won't give up entirely on the newly configured 2nd District, but a win there will require a moderate, common-sense, non-ideological Republican like KSL Radio host Doug Wright or Salt Lake Chamber executive Natalie Gochnour. Another Republican being mentioned is Michael Kennedy, who lives in the city and does government-relations work for Utah State University. Of course, Matheson could decide to run for governor in 2012, which would throw the congressional race wide open.
Who are likely contenders for congressional office should a new district be approved this year?
Pignanelli: The strong Democratic performance in the redrawn 2nd District opens a number of strange dynamics. Left-wing Democrats, who openly grumble about Matheson's practical moderate positions, will have a greater impact in internal party contests. Former Salt Lake City Mayor and current human rights activist Rocky Anderson, is a longtime critic of Matheson who may confront him for the nomination (he ran for the office in 1996). Some partisans are urging Salt Lake County Council chairman Joe Hatch to consider a candidacy. Of course, Matheson is a formidable fundraiser and campaigner — beloved by Utahns of all political stripes for strong constituent services and thoughtful policies. As many politicos know, challenging Matheson is a fool's errand.
Webb: The 4th District GOP race will be wide open with lots of candidates. Among those indicating strong interest are State Sen. Steve Urquhart from St. George, former congressional candidate Winston Wilkinson and Rep. Greg Hughes from Draper. Others mentioned are LaVar Christensen, former state legislator and congressional candidate; John Swallow, who also was in the Legislature and ran for Congress; and possibly West Valley City Council member Mike Winder. Former congressional candidate Tim Bridgewater is sometimes mentioned, although he is running for state GOP chair and likely wouldn't be living in the district. The candidate list will be lengthy for the open seat.
In reality, will Utah receive a fourth congressional seat this year through the deal with the District of Columbia?
Pignanelli: It is fun to dream and think about this. But Utah will receive a fourth congressional seat in 2012, not before. While Congress may pass legislation awarding representation to D.C. and Utah, the Supreme Court will strike down the measure. I have many friends who support the cause and understand their legitimate concerns. But it is hard to fathom how the proposal survives constitutional scrutiny. D.C. dreams for some Utahns will just have to wait three years.
Webb: It would have been great to get the additional seat in 2006. But 2012 is now close enough that it doesn't really make much difference. We can wait until then for all the fun. 2012 is shaping up as an enormous election year, with a presidential race, the Orrin Hatch Senate seat, an open gubernatorial race, four congressional races in new districts, plus all the other down-ballot races for the Legislature, etc., in new districts. A lot of legislative power will shift from old, established east-side neighborhoods to the high-growth west-side areas in Salt Lake and Utah counties. Legislative districts will be consolidated in some older, established areas, leaving two incumbents to fight it out. It will be a fascinating political year.
Republican LaVarr Webb is a political consultant and lobbyist. Previously he was policy deputy to Gov. Mike Leavitt and a Deseret News managing editor. E-mail: lwebb@exoro.com. Democrat Frank Pignanelli is Salt Lake attorney, lobbyist and political adviser. Pignanelli served 10 years in the Utah House of Representatives, six years as House minority leader. His spouse, D'Arcy Dixon Pignanelli, is a Utah state tax commissioner. E-mail: frankp@xmission.com.